FERVO ENERGY (FRVO)
NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.16+5.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FRVO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
and the earnings release shall be considered “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any reports or filings with the SEC, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a fil…
Why it matters: This report will update financial performance and management plans. It’s important for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows good trends in revenue and operating income.
Also watch forEarnings report shows more drops in revenue and operating income.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is crucial as the company faces operating losses. This will show if they can maintain discipline.
Watch forCapital expenditures are at or below $1.2 billion from Q2 2026 to Q1 2027.
Also watch forIf capital spending goes over $1.2 billion, it will be a concern.
Why it matters: A bigger loss may show serious operational problems and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet loss reported at or below $55 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet loss exceeds $55 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher revenue means success in selling geothermal power. It also shows progress in operations.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported above $200,000.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue remains below $113,000.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$449 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,052 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,525 loss on $10,000 · 65.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows that business activities are going well. This means Fervo is improving.
Supportive ifRevenue increases from $113,000 in Q2 2026 to positive levels in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue remains at or below $113,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key to reducing net losses. A positive change could signal better financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than -$20 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOperating income worsens from -$20 million in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: First power from GeoBlock 1 is key for Fervo's growth strategy. It marks a major step toward operational capacity.
Supportive ifGeoBlock 1 begins generating test power as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifGeoBlock 1 fails to generate test power by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Completing GeoBlock 3 is key for Fervo's geothermal growth. It helps the company expand.
Supportive ifGeoBlock 3 will be mechanically complete by the end of 2026.
Worry ifGeoBlock 3 will not meet the mechanical completion target by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Higher spending might mean the company is stretching too far. It could also mean project delays. This can hurt finances.
Worry ifCapital spending is reported to be over $900 million in H2 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending stays between $850 million and $900 million in H2 2026.