FERVO ENERGY (FRVO)
NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.90-4.51%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -71.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
FRVO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
and the earnings release shall be considered “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any reports or filings with the SEC, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a fil…
Why it matters: Phase II needs to meet its cost goal as Fervo builds 400 megawatts. A cost overrun would weaken the case for lower costs at scale.
Watch forFervo confirms Phase II remains at or below $5,500 per kilowatt in a filing or earnings release.
Also watch forFervo reports a Phase II cost above $5,500 per kilowatt or raises that cost estimate.
Why it matters: Fervo is building Cape Station and developing more sites while it is still losing money. Spending above the stated plan could add pressure.
Worry ifReported capital spending from Q2 2026 through Q1 2027 exceeds $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifReported capital spending through Q1 2027 is at or below $1.2 billion, in line with the stated plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$450 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $960 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,125 loss on $10,000 · 81.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.