Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GLOBAL PARTNERS LP (GLP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.67-4.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.80 → 3.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GLP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash distributions must keep increasing | They raised cash distributions to $0.78 per unit. | Intact | Distributions fall below $0.78 per unit next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The distribution will be paid on August 14, 2026 to unitholders of record as of the close of business on August 10, 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GLP is an energy-sector business with a growth and income profile, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality remains fragile and management’s delivery on disciplined capital deployment is not well established.
The valuation evidence points to a negative expectations gap, while the model confidence is high. The priced-in assessment says the fragility concerns are limited rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions; the snapshot does not provide a peer comparison to label GLP cheap or expensive.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, while operating income was broadly steady, and an August earnings beat was reported. Declared distributions also increased through the third quarter, but capital-deployment evidence is thin and erratic earnings surprises remain a risk.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut could expose weaker execution and lead analysts to reduce estimates. Over the multi-year view, the energy-sector tailwind depends in part on bellwethers such as ENB, WMB, and KMI continuing to report strong results and raise guidance; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
For the next one to three years, GLP’s thesis rests on sustained operating performance, continued distribution growth, and credible capital discipline, with sector conditions adding meaningful uncertainty. Recent results support an intact thesis, but earnings quality and guidance remain important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating cash flow must remain positive | A supporting condition in GLOBAL PARTNERS LP's published investment case. The stated target is >=300M. | Intact | Cash flow falls below $300M next quarter | Cash from operations: $309.422M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=300M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026309,422,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth must stay strong | A primary condition in GLOBAL PARTNERS LP's published investment case. The stated target is >=44% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 44% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 46.79% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=44% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202646.794858 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.71 → $3.81 · observed estimates
$34.36B → $33.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.71 | $34,356,432,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.80 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.81 | $33,890,152,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.