GLOBAL PARTNERS LP (GLP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.70+0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GLP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 41.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GLP — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-03-19
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 13, 2026, Global Partners LP (the “Partnership”), as guarantor, and certain of its subsidiaries, as borrowers, agreed with the lenders party to the Partnership’s Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated April 25, 2017 (as amended, the “Credit Agreement”) pursuant to the terms of the Credit Agreement to exercise the accordion feature in the Credit Agreement and i…
Why it matters: EBITDA growth shows good operations and cash flow. It helps management reach growth goals.
Supportive ifEBITDA exceeds $150 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEBITDA falls below $140 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a recovery in the energy sector for Global Partners. This could indicate a stronger demand for their products.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth turns positive after being near 0% for three years.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is still negative. This shows the energy sector is declining.
Why it matters: A drop in operating cash flow may show problems in operations. This can affect future distributions.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $309 million.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow stays above $309 million.
Why it matters: Growth in product margin shows the company can manage costs and set prices well.
Supportive ifProduct margin in Q2 2026 exceeds $199 million.
Worry ifProduct margin in Q2 2026 falls below $199 million.
Why it matters: More cash distributions show management cares about unitholders. This means they have strong finances.
Supportive ifCash distribution per unit increases from $0.7800 in Q2 2026 to above $0.7800 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash distribution per unit stays at $0.7800 or decreases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash from operations shows the company is stable. It means the company can pay for its operations and grow.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An update will show how management plans to handle debts. This can affect investor trust.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for capital structure in the next earnings call.
Also watch forNo update or unclear message about capital plans.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows management's plan is working. The company is managing costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $107.4 million in Q2 2026 to above $107.4 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income declines or does not grow in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows strong demand and good sales. It shows the company can capture value.
Supportive ifTotal revenue grows more than 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth is less than 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for funding operations. It helps manage financial obligations.
Supportive ifCash from operations should be $0 or more in the next earnings report.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or gets worse.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,309 loss on $10,000 · 23.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.