GWW
W. W. GraingerNYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, GWW has a composite score of 22.5 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The company momentum score increased significantly to 49.9 following fresh earnings, while the valuation label changed from "full" to "expensive" and the risk label changed from "low" to "moderate." This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $10.97 → $11.07 (+0.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 21% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase full year 2026 revenue guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
5/8: “The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including revenue of $19.2 to $19.6 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $18.7-$19.1B to $19.2-$19.6B for 2026. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $3.722B, showing a decline from $4.657B in 2025-Q3. The trajectory shows a recurring focus on growth, but limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Increase full year 2026 EPS guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
5/8: “The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including diluted adjusted EPS range of $44.25 to $46.25.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $42.25-$44.75 to $44.25-$46.25 for 2026. Diluted EPS for 2025-Q3 was $6.12, showing a decline from $9.97 in 2025-Q2. The trajectory shows a recurring focus on growth, but limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 3.Increase full year 2026 operating margin guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
5/8: “The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including operating margin of 15.6% to 16.0%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin guidance increased from 15.4%-15.9% to 15.6%-16.0% for 2026. Operating income for 2025-Q4 was $779M, showing an increase from $511M in 2025-Q3. The trajectory shows a recurring focus on growth, with some substantive delivery this quarter.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.87 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 58/100, drawdown 68/100, beta 87/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- earnings refresh · company_momentum_scoreseverity 85
Company momentum rose by 50.8 points (from -0.9 to 49.9) after fresh earnings.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
- risk change · risk_labelseverity 20
risk label changed from 'low' to 'moderate'.
As of 2026-05-08, GWW's company momentum score rose by 50.8 points, increasing from -0.9 to 49.9 after fresh earnings. The valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive', and the risk label changed from 'low' to 'moderate'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase full year 2026 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-08Management has increased the full year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $19.2 billion to $19.6 billion.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $18.7-$19.1B to $19.2-$19.6B for 2026. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $3.722B, showing a decline from $4.657B in 2025-Q3. The trajectory shows a recurring focus on growth, but limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including revenue of $19.2 to $19.6 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-08Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-08Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including revenue of $19.2 to $19.6 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is providing the following outlook for 2026: Total Company (1) 2026 Guidance Range Net Sales $18.7 - $19.1 billion”
- #2
Increase full year 2026 EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-08Management has increased the full year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $44.25 to $46.25.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $42.25-$44.75 to $44.25-$46.25 for 2026. Diluted EPS for 2025-Q3 was $6.12, showing a decline from $9.97 in 2025-Q2. The trajectory shows a recurring focus on growth, but limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including diluted adjusted EPS range of $44.25 to $46.25.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-08Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-08Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including diluted adjusted EPS range of $44.25 to $46.25.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Diluted Earnings per Share $42.25 - $44.75”
- #3
Increase full year 2026 operating margin guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-08Management has increased the full year 2026 operating margin guidance to a range of 15.6% to 16.0%.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin guidance increased from 15.4%-15.9% to 15.6%-16.0% for 2026. Operating income for 2025-Q4 was $779M, showing an increase from $511M in 2025-Q3. The trajectory shows a recurring focus on growth, with some substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including operating margin of 15.6% to 16.0%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-08Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-08Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“The company is increasing full year 2026 guidance, including operating margin of 15.6% to 16.0%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Operating Margin 15.4% - 15.9%”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GWW W. W. Grainger | +23 | expensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-08)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, W.W. Grainger, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
earnings preannouncement—score 64 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, W.W. Grainger, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.