Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HAWKEYE 360 INC (HAWK)
NYSEInformation TechnologyAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.76-4.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.03 → 0.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HAWK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow improvement | The company is improving cash flow, now at $5.4 million. | Intact | Free cash flow turns negative again | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Realized Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP metric, of $7.0 million, compared to $7.8 million in the prior-year period.” “• Recorded a net loss of $15.3 million, compared to net income of $1.6 million in the prior year period.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HAWK is a growth-oriented technology business, not yet a proven steady compounder. Management priorities look stable, but the thesis state is insufficient and confidence has fallen to low.
The snapshot provides no valuation level or expectations estimate, so it is not possible to say whether HAWK looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. Fragility is rated low, but that does not establish what the market already expects.
Near-term, satellite-data revenue growth and a slightly larger backlog support the operating story, while a new credit facility adds financial flexibility. Efficiency progress is mixed: free cash flow improved, but the net loss increased and Adjusted EBITDA declined slightly. Erratic recent earnings and a 41% estimated chance of a miss make the next results a key near-term risk.
The multi-year view depends on continued growth in satellite-data services and whether that growth can improve operating efficiency. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or stabilization in the technology sector could provide a favorable backdrop, but do not resolve company-specific execution risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HAWK has evidence of customer and revenue momentum, but losses, uneven earnings, and low confidence leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
New contract awards in satellite data services | Strong demand for satellite data services supports growth. | Intact | No new contracts awarded in the next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document HawkEye 360 Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Revenue of $49.8 million, up 87% compared to the prior-year period of $26.6 million Achieved record international revenue of $21.0 million, up 134% compared to the prior-year period Successfully closed an initial public offering (“IPO”) in May 2026, raising $437.5 million in net proceeds Backlog of $292.2 million as of June 30, 2026 HERNDON, VA., – August 13, 2026 – HawkEye 360, Inc. (NYSE: HAWK) ("HawkEye 360" or "the Company"), a global leader in signals intelligence data and analytics, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth from satellite data services | Strong demand for satellite data services supports growth. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $215 million by December | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document HawkEye 360 Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Revenue of $49.8 million, up 87% compared to the prior-year period of $26.6 million Achieved record international revenue of $21.0 million, up 134% compared to the prior-year period Successfully closed an initial public offering (“IPO”) in May 2026, raising $437.5 million in net proceeds Backlog of $292.2 million as of June 30, 2026 HERNDON, VA., – August 13, 2026 – HawkEye 360, Inc. (NYSE: HAWK) ("HawkEye 360" or "the Company"), a global leader in signals intelligence data and analytics, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.17 → $0.02 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | $0.17 | $267,945,250 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $267,945,250 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.17 | $267,945,250 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.12 | $267,761,391 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.10 | $270,574,619 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.10 | $270,598,776 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.07 | $271,538,899 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.07 | $271,538,899 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.07 | $271,538,899 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.07 | $271,538,899 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.07 | $271,538,899 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.07 | $271,538,899 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.01 | $271,583,188 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.01 | $271,583,187 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $271,709,912 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.03 | $271,708,330 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $271,708,330 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.03 | $271,708,330 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.03 | $271,690,148 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.02 | $272,132,636 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.