HAWKEYE 360 INC (HAWK)
NYSEInformation TechnologyAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.36+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HAWK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HAWK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 22, 2026, HawkEye 360, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Why it matters: Better efficiency is important to cut losses. It will show if management is doing well.
Supportive ifOperating losses decrease to below $5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating losses are still over $5.6 million. This shows no improvement.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better cost management and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss was below $10 million. This shows improved financial health.
Worry ifIf the net loss is over $15 million, it shows more operational problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if satellite data services are growing. Investors want to see if the company is making money after recent losses.
Watch forQ2 revenue is over $50 million. This shows strong growth in satellite data services.
Also watch forQ2 revenue is under $49 million. This suggests the company is still struggling to make a profit.
Why it matters: Management's ability to manage cash and debt is crucial. A strong capital allocation plan can support future growth.
Supportive ifManagement plans to reduce operating losses. They also want to manage cash flow better.
Worry ifMore news about cash loss or poor debt management.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$394 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $768 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,003 loss on $10,000 · 50.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful use could boost processing power and improve services, bringing in more clients.
Supportive ifProcessing speed is faster. Military radar products are better.
Worry ifProcessing power has not improved. Service offerings are still the same.
Why it matters: A growing backlog indicates strong future revenue potential. It reflects ongoing demand for HawkEye 360's services.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $300 million.
Worry ifBacklog declines or stays below $292 million.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health. It means better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss decreases from $15.3 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet loss increases beyond $15.3 million.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means the company runs more efficiently. This helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is more than $10 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $7 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing losses show problems with costs and efficiency. This hurts investor confidence.
Worry ifOperating losses in Q2 are over $6 million. This shows worsening financial health.
Less concerning ifOperating losses in Q2 are under $5 million. This shows better cost management.
Why it matters: Sustaining high revenue growth signals strong demand for HawkEye 360's services. It shows the company is effectively expanding its market share.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 80% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 70% year over year.