Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.31-8.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.81 → 0.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLIT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income from broadband segment improves sustainably | A primary condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income grows or remains above $20 million next 4 quarters. | Intact | operating income from broadband falls below $15 million next 4 quarters | Operating income: $23.631M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income grows or remains above $20 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 17, 202623,631,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused technology business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because overall earnings quality is still classified as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with broadband growth and operating income progress supporting the case, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
HLIT is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence, so that comparison is uncertain. The expectations gap is negative, and pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, execution has been constructive: broadband revenue and backlog have grown, and Broadband operating income has improved. Management has delivered on its broadband and profitability priorities, while the Video Business sale was completed; the recent earnings beat is positive, but a smaller-cap profile and a prior deep miss leave some execution risk.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued broadband growth through DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments, alongside further improvement in operating income. A guidance reversal after the recent raise would damage management credibility; rate cuts or steadier results from technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but those conditions are uncertain.
The multi-year view remains intact because broadband growth and profitability progress are evident, but loss-making earnings, elevated risk, and low valuation-model confidence limit certainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Broadband revenue reaches about $485 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $475 million. | Intact | broadband revenue falls below $475 million in FY26 | Broadband unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Broadband revenue: $75.806M in FY2023-Q3. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Nov 3, 2023Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Cash from operating activities remains positive and grows | A supporting condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is positive and stable or growing cash flow next 4 quarters. | Improving | cash from operations turns negative or declines significantly next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-5.43M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive and stable or growing cash flow next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 17, 2026-5,430,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 51.5% in FY26 | A supporting condition in Harmonic Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~51.5%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 50% in FY26 | Gross margin: 52.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~51.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 17, 202652.365467 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.77 → $0.87 · observed estimates
$0.57B → $0.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.78 | $548,585,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.77 | $565,285,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.80 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.81 | $572,707,233 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.85 | $596,416,383 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.87 | $602,716,383 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.