Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.31-8.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLIT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 34.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HLIT — President transition
Dated 2026-06-17
Senior Vice President and General Manager, Video Business — Neven Haltmayer: Mr. Haltmayer is retiring after 20 years of service at the Company.
Why it matters: These bookings show whether Harmonic is gaining customers beyond its largest accounts. That can lessen the risk from customer concentration.
Supportive ifRest-of-Market bookings make up 50% or more of total bookings in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifRest-of-Market bookings make up less than 50% of total bookings in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: More cOS customers and devices would show that broadband growth reaches more networks. The last report counted 161 customers and 48.2 million devices.
Supportive ifThe next report shows more than 161 cOS customers and more than 48.2 million devices served.
Worry ifThe next report shows fewer than 161 cOS customers or fewer than 48.2 million devices served.
Why it matters: The report can show whether Q3 results met guidance and whether the 2026 revenue range still stands. It is the next named company event.
Watch forThe November 2 report shows Q3 broadband revenue of at least $125 million and keeps 2026 revenue guidance at $505 million or higher.
Also watch forThe November 2 report shows Q3 broadband revenue below $125 million or cuts the 2026 revenue range below $505 million.
Why it matters: Profit rose as broadband revenue grew, but the latest outlook still sets a clear floor. A miss would weaken the case that growth is also lifting profit.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating profit is below $23 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating profit is at least $23 million, meeting or beating the low end of guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $556 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,150 loss on $10,000 · 41.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Harmonic raised its 2026 broadband revenue outlook after Q2 growth reached 54%. Q3 revenue tests whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 broadband revenue is at least $125 million, the low end of the company’s guidance.
Worry ifQ3 broadband revenue is below $125 million, missing the low end of guidance.