Harmonic Inc. (HLIT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.78+1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLIT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HLIT — President transition
Dated 2026-06-17
Senior Vice President and General Manager, Video Business — Neven Haltmayer: Mr. Haltmayer is retiring after 20 years of service at the Company.
Why it matters: A strong backlog shows high demand. This means more money for Harmonic in the future.
Supportive ifBacklog growth exceeds 70% year over year, reaching over $590 million.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 70% year over year.
Why it matters: Closing the sale for $145 million will free up resources for broadband growth.
Supportive ifThe sale of the Video Business closes by June 8, 2026.
Worry ifThe sale of the Video Business is delayed beyond September 8, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health. They will also show operational progress.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth above the median for the sector.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth below the median for the sector.
Why it matters: This sale is a key priority for Harmonic. It could improve cash flow and focus on core operations.
Supportive ifThe sale is complete. The money has been received.
Worry ifThe sale announcement is late or not happening.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $523 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,805 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Exceeding this number shows Harmonic can make more money. It shows good cost control and revenue growth.
Supportive ifOperating income was at or above $17 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income was below $17 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and future earnings. It shows customer trust in Harmonic.
Supportive ifBacklog increases to over $582 million in Q2.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or fails to grow from $582 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This sale is important for Harmonic. It helps them streamline operations and focus better.
Supportive ifA press release says the sale is finalized. The transaction is now complete.
Worry ifThere could be delays in the sale process. The transaction might be canceled.
Why it matters: Delays may hurt management's effectiveness and plans during a key growth time.
Worry ifTransition of the new President occurs without delays.
Less concerning ifAnnouncement of delays in the transition of the new President.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance goes up, it shows strong demand for broadband services.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 2026 Broadband revenue guidance to more than $135 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps Q3 2026 Broadband revenue guidance at or below $135 million.
Why it matters: More backlog growth shows strong future revenue and customer demand.
Supportive ifBacklog and deferred revenue grows more than 70% YoY in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog and deferred revenue growth falls below 70% YoY in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps with financial stability and growth.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities grows to over $231.9 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls or stays below $231.9 million in Q3 2026.