Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD (HMY)
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.90+2.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
64.01 → 61.13 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HMY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
progress on copper mine projects | A supporting condition in HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is advance Eva Copper mine and MAC Copper acquisition. | Intact | copper projects face major delays or cancellations | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HMY is a cyclical Materials company, meaning its results can be sensitive to shifts in the broader economy and sector conditions. The current long-term thesis is insufficiently supported by recent financial history, and confidence in this assessment is low.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation measures or direct account of market expectations, so it is not possible to judge whether HMY is cheap, fairly valued, or expensive versus peers. It also does not show what earnings assumptions the market already reflects.
Near term, repeated earnings misses raise the risk of another miss next quarter. The Materials sector context weakened recently, though the snapshot still labels the broader sector backdrop a tailwind. The evidence is too limited to establish a multi-year earnings trajectory.
The sector backdrop could remain supportive if bellwethers NEM, RGLD, and CDE continue to report strong results and guide higher. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support, while further weakening in jobs data could increase recession concerns and pressure cyclical businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HMY’s thesis remains uncertain: the sector backdrop may help, but repeated misses and elevated near-term risk are important offsets. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is 11% to 17% earnings growth. |
| Intact |
| earnings growth falls below 11% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
gold prices remain high | High gold prices helped profits recently. | Broken | gold prices fall significantly below recent highs | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$66.26 → $61.13 · observed estimates
$131.36B → $120.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $66.26 | $131,359,477,318 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $63.93 | $126,494,676,093 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $63.93 | $126,494,676,093 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $63.93 | $126,494,676,093 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $61.66 | $124,456,589,699 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $61.76 | $124,456,589,699 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $61.04 | $123,824,766,812 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $63.52 | $123,824,766,812 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $63.52 | $123,824,766,812 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $63.52 | $123,824,766,812 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $63.52 | $123,824,766,812 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $63.59 | $124,005,699,652 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $63.59 | $124,005,699,652 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $63.75 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $63.65 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $63.59 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $63.59 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $63.59 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $64.61 | $124,028,340,175 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $64.10 | $123,036,676,671 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $64.01 | $122,615,458,010 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $64.01 | $122,615,458,010 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $64.01 | $122,615,458,010 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $64.01 | $122,615,458,010 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $64.01 | $122,615,458,010 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $63.20 | $121,830,235,473 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $63.20 | $121,830,235,473 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $63.20 | $121,830,235,473 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $62.72 | $120,783,677,338 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $62.33 | $120,299,918,612 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $61.13 | $119,997,035,982 | 1 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.