HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD (HMY)
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.27-2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HMY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: This report can affect gold prices and mining costs. Changes here can impact Harmony Gold's margins.
Watch forThe Producer Price Index shows a big rise. This means costs are going up.
Also watch forThe Producer Price Index shows a big drop. This means costs are going down.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Harmony Gold is doing during sector challenges.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: A shift to positive revenue growth would signal a potential recovery in the sector. This could benefit Harmony Gold's performance.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector turns positive.
Worry ifRevenue growth over three years is still negative or getting worse.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Harmony is doing during tough times in the sector.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong performance in operations.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows worse results than expected. This means there are still challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $645 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,885 loss on $10,000 · 48.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining materials sector. This could impact Harmony's performance and outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1% for three years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: The PPI data can affect gold prices and mining costs. This impacts Harmony's margins and profitability.
Watch forPPI data shows prices are going down. This means lower costs for mining.
Also watch forPPI data shows prices are going up. This means higher costs for mining.
Why it matters: CPI data can influence inflation expectations and gold prices. This may impact Harmony's revenue.
Watch forCPI data shows less inflation. This helps support higher gold prices.
Also watch forCPI data shows higher inflation, leading to lower gold prices.