Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.95-2.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRTG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 HRTG trades at 1.8× p/b, in line with its 1.7× p/b peer median — but our blended $55 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range. Analysts target $31–$42. Note: our $55 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($31–$42). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $36.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $92.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $153.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $54.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$31.00 – $42.00 (median $36.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-08-06
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $32.45 |
| 1.7 |
| 18.88 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $65.70 | 6.8 | 9.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $98.39 | 14.0 | 7.02 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $40.59 | 1.4 | 28.42 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $38.99 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $31.62 | 4.5 | 7.02 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $107.00 | 14.0 | 7.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $49.35 | 1.7 | 28.71 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $47.86 | 1.4 | 33.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $65.26 | 1.7 | 37.97 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $54.55 | 1.4 | 38.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |