Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.95-2.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRTG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and growth progress. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Watch forEarnings per share beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forEarnings per share misses analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: New products can drive growth and diversify revenue streams for the company.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new products launched in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new products launched in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in gross premiums written shows more competition in the market.
Worry ifGross premiums written decline more than 5.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifGross premiums written decline less than 5.5% or stabilize.
Why it matters: Management wants to grow the number of policies. A decline shows problems in execution.
Supportive ifTotal policies-in-force increases from 353,909 in Q1 2026 to above 360,000 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe total number of policies drops from 353,909 in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: If the sector grows slower, it may affect Heritage's results and future plans.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could hurt Heritage's performance.
Worry ifHeritage's revenue growth drops below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Launching six new products could drive revenue growth and improve market position. This expansion is key for long-term strategy.
Supportive ifAt least three of the six planned products launch successfully by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new products launched by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New products would show Heritage wants to grow and diversify.
Supportive ifHeritage launches at least two new products in Q3.
Worry ifNo new products are launched in Q3.
Why it matters: Heritage could make a lot more money by entering Texas. This would grow its market.
Supportive ifHeritage writes business in Texas by the end of 2026.
Worry ifHeritage delays or fails to write business in Texas by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks mean management thinks the company is valuable.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases are over $50 million in 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases are under $50 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Lower reinsurance costs can improve margins and profitability. This is crucial for managing risk and growth.
Supportive ifReinsurance costs decrease further from $367.5 million reported in May 2026.
Worry ifReinsurance costs increase from $367.5 million reported in May 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value and growth.
Supportive ifThe company bought back over $10 million in shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A better net loss ratio shows the company is managing risks well. This helps the company's growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss ratio improves year over year to below 30%.
Worry ifNet loss ratio remains above 30% or worsens year over year.
Why it matters: News about Texas operations will show how the company grows. It will also show how they deal with competition.
Supportive ifManagement says premiums written in Texas grew by over 10% in Q3.
Worry ifNo growth reported in Texas premiums or a decline in market share.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management believes in the company's value. They also believe in its growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the $50 million share buyback program is now complete.
Worry ifNo further share repurchases announced or a pause in the program.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will show how well management's strategies work in a tough market.
Watch forQ3 total revenue grows year over year by more than 5%.
Also watch forTotal revenue declines or grows less than 1% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $458 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,295 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.