Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.73+0.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HRTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HRTG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…
Why it matters: Lower reinsurance costs helped raise net premiums earned. The full savings pass-through is a test of the new program's value.
Supportive ifThe next reports show ceded premiums down year over year. Net premiums earned grow even as gross premiums earned stay flat or fall.
Worry ifCeded premiums rise year over year, or net premiums earned fall despite the stated treaty savings.
Why it matters: The company says price pressure is cutting commercial residential premiums. More decline would show growth remains hard to achieve.
Worry ifNext quarter, gross premiums written fall more than 3.1% year over year. Commercial residential premiums are still down.
Less concerning ifGross premiums written stay flat or rise year over year. Commercial residential premiums stop falling.
Why it matters: Repurchases reduced share count and helped lift earnings per share. The new plan starts after December 31, 2026.
Supportive ifA company report shows repurchases under the new program after December 31, 2026. It lists shares bought and dollars spent.
Worry ifThe program ends with no reported purchases. Or the company says it suspended or ended the authorization.
Why it matters: The ratio stayed near last year's level in Q3, while the loss ratio rose. A further rise would weaken the case for steady underwriting gains.
Worry ifThe next reported net combined ratio is above 73.0%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net combined ratio is at or below 73.0%, with the net loss ratio at or below 39.6%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $392 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,295 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Heritage has entered Texas and says it is seeking selective growth. New premiums would show the move is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA later report names Texas surplus-lines premiums or policies. It shows growth from the first reported amount.
Worry ifA later report says Texas business has stalled. Or it shows no added premiums or policies since entry.
Why it matters: Q3 had $15.8 million in catastrophe losses. A larger loss could weaken earnings despite strong results so far.
Worry ifIn the next quarterly report, catastrophe losses exceed $15.8 million. Or the net loss ratio rises above 39.6%.
Less concerning ifCatastrophe losses are below $15.8 million and the net loss ratio is at or below 39.6%.