Hexcel (HXL)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$91.98-0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HXL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 HXL trades at 43× p/e — 1.4× the 30× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $96 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts target $100–$126. Note: our $96 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($100–$126). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $110.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $131.14 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $131.95 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $28.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$100.00 – $126.00 (median $110.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-08-04
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 173% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 16.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.20/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2020-Q1, 2020-Q2, 2020-Q3, 2020-Q4
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $112.60 |
| 27.0 |
| 4.15 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $105.55 | 30.4 | 3.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $80.44 | 27.8 | 2.90 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $85.21 | 3.3 | 25.86 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $90.69 | 42.4 | 2.14 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $68.69 | 30.3 | 2.26 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $160.53 | 30.4 | 5.28 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $92.56 | 27.8 | 3.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $105.31 | 3.3 | 31.96 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $141.18 | 42.4 | 3.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $212.30 | 30.4 | 6.99 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $99.39 | 27.8 | 3.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $113.08 | 3.3 | 34.32 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $151.60 | 42.4 | 3.58 | Analyst | medium |