Hexcel (HXL)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$80.62-3.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HXL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HXL — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-05-28
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Hexcel Corporation (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K on April 30, 2026, disclosing its public offering of $400 million aggregate principal amount of 4.900% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”). Also on such date, the Company disclosed that it had elected to redeem its 3.950% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “2027 Notes”). On May 28, 2026, the Company applied the net proceeds from the issuance of the 2031 Notes, together with cash…
Why it matters: Free cash flow reached $102.5 million through Q3. The full-year goal depends on Q4 cash flow and working capital.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is greater than $195 million.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is $195 million or less.
Why it matters: Hexcel kept its sales range after nine-month sales rose 8.9%. Meeting the low end would back its growth plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 sales are at least $2.025 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 sales fall below $2.025 billion, or Hexcel cuts its sales range.
Why it matters: This segment fell 8.7% in Q3. Hexcel also cited softer fighter, launcher, and rocket motor sales.
Watch forQ4 Defense, Space & Other sales are at least flat year over year.
Also watch forQ4 Defense, Space & Other sales decline at least 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Commercial aerospace sales rose 20.5% in Q3. This is Hexcel's largest market and a key test of customer rate growth.
Supportive ifQ4 commercial aerospace sales grow at least 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 commercial aerospace sales grow less than 10% year over year or decline.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $298 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,958 loss on $10,000 · 29.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.