Hexcel (HXL)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$91.98-0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HXL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
HXL — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-05-28
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Hexcel Corporation (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K on April 30, 2026, disclosing its public offering of $400 million aggregate principal amount of 4.900% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”). Also on such date, the Company disclosed that it had elected to redeem its 3.950% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “2027 Notes”). On May 28, 2026, the Company applied the net proceeds from the issuance of the 2031 Notes, together with cash…
Why it matters: James Coogan's leadership may change the financial strategy. This can affect cash flow and growth plans.
Watch forCoogan starts a new financial strategy that boosts cash flow or revenue.
Also watch forSince Coogan was appointed, there are no clear changes in money plans or results.
Why it matters: M&A can affect Hexcel's financial position and growth strategy.
Worry ifM&A activity causes a big drop in cash or more debt.
Less concerning ifM&A activity strengthens cash flow or reduces debt levels.
Why it matters: New buyback announcements show management trusts cash flow. They want to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifA new share buyback program or an increase in the current program is announced.
Worry ifNo announcements or indications of share repurchase plans in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is vital for Hexcel's operations and investments. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $100 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $80 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost control. This helps the company grow.
Supportive ifThe adjusted income margin goes above 14% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe adjusted income margin drops below 12% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More employees show confidence in future demand and plans to grow operations.
Supportive ifHexcel adds more than 100 employees in the next quarter.
Worry ifHexcel does not add headcount or reduces employee count.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial aerospace sales is key to Hexcel's revenue outlook. It signals demand recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 commercial aerospace sales increase year over year by more than 15%.
Worry ifCommercial aerospace sales decline year over year or grow less than 5%.
Why it matters: Higher oil prices can raise costs and hurt margins. Keeping an eye on this shows how well the company operates.
Worry ifCost increases linked to oil prices are reported in Q2 2026 results.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 results show no big cost increases from oil prices.
Why it matters: Higher oil prices may hurt margins. This could affect profits in the aerospace sector.
Worry ifGross margin was over 27% despite rising oil prices. This shows resilience.
Less concerning ifGross margin fell below 26%. This indicates pressure from rising oil prices.
Why it matters: Improved operating income shows better cost management. It is key for Hexcel's growth.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with spending plans and buying back shares. This boosts shareholder value.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow is negative or below $50 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows recovery in commercial aerospace. It helps management meet revenue goals.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 sales were over $493 million. This is more than 8% growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 2026 sales were below $493 million. This shows weaker demand in commercial aerospace.
Why it matters: Higher EPS shows strong performance and good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 2026 was above $0.40. This shows strong earnings growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 2026 was below $0.40. This suggests there are operational challenges.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports capital discipline and share repurchase efforts.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $195 million for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow was below $195 million for 2026. This shows cash generation issues.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $291 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,865 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.