ImmunityBio, Inc. (IBRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.08-1.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IBRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 344.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 404.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IBRX — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filings of the Company made under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general i…
Why it matters: Work on the Tokyo strain could solve the BCG supply issue. This would help ImmunityBio's market.
Supportive ifImmunityBio shares a timeline for talking to the FDA about the Tokyo strain of BCG.
Worry ifNo updates on the regulatory path for the Tokyo strain within the next six months.
Why it matters: Results from this trial will help with the BLA submission and future product approvals.
Supportive ifPositive results came from the BCG-naïve NMIBC CIS trial, showing good statistical power.
Worry ifNegative results or delays in reporting from the pivotal BCG-naïve NMIBC CIS trial.
Why it matters: Lower operating expenses would mean better cost management. This could help reduce losses.
Supportive ifOperating expenses drop by at least 10% compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating expenses go up or stay the same compared to Q1. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: Finishing this trial is key for ImmunityBio's next steps in submissions.
Supportive ifFull enrollment and trial completion are confirmed.
Worry ifTrial enrollment remains open or is delayed.
Why it matters: FDA approval updates can affect product sales. This is key for the company's growth.
Watch forGood news about FDA approval for new products or uses.
Also watch forNegative news or delays in the FDA approval process.
Why it matters: New partnerships may boost growth. They can also support the company's market strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new strategic partnership by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced by the end of Q3. This shows challenges in growth.
Why it matters: FDA approval could open new markets for ANKTIVA and greatly increase revenue.
Supportive ifFDA approves the sBLA for ANKTIVA plus BCG for BCG-unresponsive NMIBC.
Worry ifFDA rejects the sBLA for ANKTIVA plus BCG for BCG-unresponsive NMIBC.
Why it matters: Lower operating losses mean better control of costs. This shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating losses were less than $69.79 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating losses were over $69.79 million. This shows there are still problems.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows that more people are using ANKTIVA. It also shows good sales.
Supportive ifQ3 product revenue growth exceeds 15% sequentially from Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 product revenue growth falls below 15% sequentially.
Why it matters: Updates on this trial will show how ImmunityBio is doing with NMIBC treatments.
Supportive ifImmunityBio submits the sBLA for the QUILT-2.005 trial.
Worry ifImmunityBio delays the sBLA submission for the QUILT-2.005 trial.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$244 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $749 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,234 loss on $10,000 · 42.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.