Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ImmunityBio, Inc. (IBRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.01-10.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IBRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating loss improves from -$69.79M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in ImmunityBio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss less negative than -$50 million. | Intact | Operating loss worsens beyond -$70 million in FY26 | Operating income: $-61.697M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-61,697,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story, not yet a proven compounder, because it is loss-making and depends on product growth and clinical progress. The long-term thesis is on watch: sales are advancing, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
IBRX is expensive versus peers, with valuation partly tied to the possibility of future gains from its product and clinical programs. The expectations gap is positive, but confidence in that estimate is low; the evidence describes the valuation premium as driven by optionality, not by established earnings.
Near term, product revenue has grown for eight consecutive quarters, and the latest two earnings updates were in line. Management has also advanced clinical and regulatory work, though progress on BCG supply partnerships is mixed. Losses, elevated risk, and the possibility of guidance cuts remain important constraints.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued product-sales growth, progress toward planned regulatory submissions, and reliable BCG supply. Near term, weaker guidance or a worsening jobs backdrop could weigh on the business setup, while strength among healthcare bellwethers would support the sector context.
The multi-year view has real operating progress, but the expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution setbacks, and the evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
FDA approvals and strategic partnerships advance | A supporting condition in ImmunityBio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain FDA approvals and at least one strategic partnership. | Intact | Loss of FDA approval or no new partnerships in 12 months | 1 partnership secured vs >=1 target May 2026 exclusive development agreement with Japan BCG Laboratory; positive ASCO data; Turkish expansion meeting. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $113M in FY26 | A primary condition in ImmunityBio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $113 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $100 million in FY26 | Revenue: $51.24M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $113 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202651,240,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net product revenue reached $50.7 million, representing 92% year-over-year growth and 15% sequential growth from the first quarter of 2026.” “Page 2 “Our record quarterly net product revenue of $50.7 million and eighth consecutive quarter of sequential growth reflect continued physician adoption of ANKTIVA and disciplined commercial execution,” said Richard Adcock, President and CEO of ImmunityBio.” Revenue was $51.240 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $-0.11 · observed estimates
$0.45B → $0.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.06 | $452,023,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.16 | $452,023,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.06 | $452,023,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.16 | $452,023,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.06 | $452,023,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.16 | $452,023,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.15 | $436,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.06 | $436,467,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.15 | $436,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.06 | $436,467,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.06 | $436,467,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.06 | $436,467,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.06 | $436,467,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.06 | $436,467,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.13 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.14 | $441,467,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.14 | $454,442,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.11 | $471,899,750 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.