Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.86-0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IDYA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -54.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IDYA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
and the attached Exhibit 99.1 are being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Completing the NDA submission is key for faster approval of darovasertib. It is an important step to bring the drug to market.
Supportive ifNDA submission is completed and accepted by the FDA under the RTOR program.
Worry ifNDA submission is delayed or not completed as planned in H2 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue shows progress in fixing recent drops and challenges.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $6.56M, showing recovery from a big drop in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue remains below $6.56M, continuing the downward trend.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income goes from -$108.5M in Q1 to less negative or positive in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or remains at -$108.5M or worse in Q2.
Why it matters: This data could help with the NDA submission for darovasertib in HLA*A2-positive mUM patients. Good results may help get regulatory approval.
Supportive ifData at ESMO shows big improvements in ORR and PFS for HLA*A2-positive patients.
Worry ifData at ESMO shows no big improvements in ORR and PFS for HLA*A2-positive patients.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,710 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the company's future and for investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Good survival data could show that darovasertib works well for mUM.
Supportive ifAn update on overall survival data is expected in mid-2027.
Worry ifNo better survival data or negative trends have been reported.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well darovasertib works in HLA*A2-positive patients.
Watch forData shows improved overall response rate in HLA*A2-positive mUM patients.
Also watch forData shows no big effect in HLA*A2-positive patients.
Why it matters: Good results could raise trust in IDEAYA's projects and growth.
Supportive ifIDEAYA announced good results for IDE892 with Roche's RG6505.
Worry ifBad results or delays in the work with Roche.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show if IDEAYA can fund trials and operations until 2030.
Watch forManagement says cash runway guidance into 2030 stays the same after the capital raise.
Also watch forManagement lowers cash runway guidance, which may mean funding problems.
Why it matters: Starting this trial could help the partnership. It may also grow IDEAYA's pipeline for MTAP-deleted pancreatic cancer.
Supportive ifThe Phase 1 trial of IDE892 with RG6505 begins as planned in H2 2026.
Worry ifThe Phase 1 trial is delayed or not initiated as planned.
Why it matters: Complete data will confirm the good results. This will help with NDA submission for darovasertib.
Supportive ifData shows a median progression-free survival (PFS) gain of 6.9 months.
Worry ifThe presentation shows no major gain in PFS or other key endpoints.