Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.65-5.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IDYA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain and advance clinical collaboration with Roche | Ideaya has strong clinical partnerships with Roche and AstraZeneca. | Intact | Clinical collaboration with Roche stalls or is discontinued | Qualitative: Active collaboration confirmed IDYA formed a clinical partnership with Roche in June 2026 to evaluate IDE892 efficacy in pancreatic cancer. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact and has recently shifted to mildly favorable, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
IDYA trades at a durable premium of about 1.5 times its peers, while the model’s confidence is low. The expectations gap is 0.35 and is tagged unjustified, suggesting the premium is not well supported by the current evidence; no fragility gates were triggered.
Near term, the company remains loss-making and has a run of earnings misses, so the next report carries meaningful execution risk. Over the multi-year view, darovasertib’s trial met its primary endpoint and its NDA filing is on track for completion in the second half of 2026, while collaboration revenue rose from $6.6 million to $8.9 million between the first and second quarters of 2026.
The thesis depends on completing the darovasertib NDA filing on schedule and advancing clinical collaborations, including the planned Roche trial in the second half of 2026. A guidance cut would add a negative signal, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum; weakening jobs data may increase concern about cyclical weakness.
For the next 1 to 3 years, IDYA’s case rests on turning clinical progress and partnerships into durable business progress, despite ongoing losses and near-term reporting risk. The thesis is intact, but its valuation premium and execution demands leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Pursuant to the clinical collaboration announced with Roche in May, IDEAYA is also targeting initiation of a Phase 1 trial to evaluate IDE892 in combination with RG6505, Roche’s Phase 1 pan-RAS inhibitor, in MTAP-deleted, RAS-mutant PDAC by the end of 2026.” “o In August, IDEAYA entered into a Clinical Supply Collaboration Agreement with Genentech to evaluate IDE892 in combination with RG6620, a Phase 1 KRAS Exhibit 99.1 G12D inhibitor, in MTAP-deleted, KRAS G12D-mutant PDAC.”
Improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1 | The company aims to improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Operating income worsens beyond -$108.5M or remains deeply negative | Operating income: $-137.632M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward breakeven or less negative levels. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-137,632,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This is expected to result in estimated cost savings of $100-125 million that the company will reallocate towards other high-value programs in its pipeline, including potential registrational trials for IDE849 and IDE892.” “Based on ongoing patient recruitment considerations for the global Phase 3 OptimUM-10 trial IDEAYA is assessing optimal capital allocation across its portfolio, including accelerating its investment into other high-value programs, such as the DLL3 registrational trial and MTAP/KRAS combination studies.” Operating income was $-137.632 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase revenue from $6.56M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Ideaya Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth stabilizes or improves above $6.56M quarterly. | Intact | Revenue declines below $6.56M or continues steep downward trend | Revenue: $10.242M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth stabilizes or improves above $6.56M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202610,242,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.65 → $-4.31 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.65 | $116,676,340 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.68 | $117,010,943 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.64 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.67 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.64 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.64 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.67 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.64 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.67 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.67 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.62 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.62 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.62 | $114,558,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.77 | $116,604,150 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.11 | $115,491,080 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.65 | $114,916,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.11 | $115,491,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.13 | $115,491,013 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.13 | $115,516,084 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.04 | $119,786,552 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.14 | $117,876,798 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.14 | $117,876,798 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.14 | $117,876,798 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.23 | $116,446,292 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.23 | $116,446,292 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.23 | $116,446,292 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.23 | $118,318,345 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.22 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.22 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.23 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.23 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.23 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.23 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.23 | $118,312,958 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.31 | $123,689,461 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.