Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.86-0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1: Operating income not reported.
Ideaya has strong clinical partnerships with Roche and AstraZeneca. Recent trial success supports growth potential. The company aims to improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1. Revenue growth is a focus despite recent declines.
Revenue fell sharply to $6.56M in 2026-Q1 from $207.83M in 2025-Q3. Operating losses remain large and worsening. Analysts expect nearly 50% revenue decline next year, showing weak outlook.
The stock trades about 10% below our valuation estimate and 23% below the Street median. Analysts expect a 49% revenue decline next year, reflecting a challenging outlook. Our view is more cautious on revenue recovery and profitability.
Breaks if: Clinical collaboration with Roche stalls or is discontinued
Breaks if: Operating income worsens beyond -$108.5M or remains deeply negative
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is focused on clinical advancements and collaborations, but it is currently loss-making and faces moderate risks.
The market appears to price in a durable premium compared to peers, indicating expectations for future growth. However, there is an expectations gap suggesting that some investors may not fully believe in the company's ability to deliver on its promises.
Management is making progress on key priorities, such as advancing darovasertib's clinical development and increasing revenue through collaborations. However, the company has a history of earnings misses, which adds a layer of uncertainty to its near-term performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on successful clinical trial outcomes and the ability to maintain momentum in the healthcare sector. Key triggers include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in guidance from management.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has put pressure on the thesis. This miss raises concerns about the company's financial performance and outlook. The overall market backdrop has also shifted, with a recent risk-off sentiment affecting growth stocks.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue declines below $6.56M or continues steep downward trend
Overall, IDYA's trajectory will depend on its clinical advancements and market conditions. Not investment advice.