Incyte (INCY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$122.85+4.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INCY — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-22
Other Events. Incyte Corporation (the “Company”) today announced that it has reached an agreement with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) to resolve the Company’s litigation related to the application of Medicaid rebate rules to Opzelura ® (ruxolitinib) cream. Under the agreement, CMS will not apply the line extension regulation to Opzelura as if it were a line extension of Jakafi ® (ruxolitinib), and the Company has withdrawn its lawsuit challenging the regulations. The set…
Why it matters: Opzelura sales grew 36% year over year in Q3, and Incyte raised its full-year range. The range includes a one-time $246 million CMS benefit, so reported sales need that context.
Watch forFull-year 2026 Opzelura net sales exceed $1.12 billion, the top of the raised range.
Also watch forFull-year Opzelura net sales fall below $1.10 billion, the bottom of the raised range.
Why it matters: The new trial shifts INCB123667 toward first-line ovarian cancer care after Incyte stopped MAESTRA-2. A timely start would show the new plan is moving ahead.
Supportive ifIncyte starts MAESTRA-3 by the end of Q4 2026, testing INCB123667 with bevacizumab as first-line maintenance.
Worry ifMAESTRA-3 has not started by the end of Q4 2026, or Incyte reports a delay or program stop.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,833 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.