Incyte (INCY)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$126.75-0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
INCY — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-22
Other Events. Incyte Corporation (the “Company”) today announced that it has reached an agreement with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) to resolve the Company’s litigation related to the application of Medicaid rebate rules to Opzelura ® (ruxolitinib) cream. Under the agreement, CMS will not apply the line extension regulation to Opzelura as if it were a line extension of Jakafi ® (ruxolitinib), and the Company has withdrawn its lawsuit challenging the regulations. The set…
Why it matters: Achieving or exceeding sales targets for these products is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifJakafi sales may reach over $3.27 billion. Opzelura sales may exceed $790 million in 2026.
Worry ifJakafi and Opzelura sales may not meet their goals.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth for Opzelura would show that Incyte's plan is working. This would help overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifOpzelura net sales reported above $1 billion for the full year 2026.
Worry ifOpzelura net sales reported below $1 billion for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Good results may help with regulatory approvals. This could boost growth in dermatology.
Supportive ifTopline results from the Phase 3 studies are reported in Q4 2026.
Worry ifTopline results from the Phase 3 studies are disappointing or delayed.
Why it matters: Good data could improve Incyte's pipeline. This will help its growth plans.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 3 trial of INCA033989 shows positive results.
Worry ifData from the Phase 3 trial of INCA033989 shows no significant efficacy.
Why it matters: Higher R&D costs could mean more investment in the pipeline. But it might also raise worries about managing costs.
Watch forR&D expenses reported above $517 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forR&D expenses reported below $517 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the deal will add VGA039 to Incyte's products for bleeding disorders.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q3 2026 after the Hart-Scott-Rodino review.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or not finish by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in R&D costs can show shifts in investment and focus.
Worry ifR&D expenses remain within or below the full year 2026 guidance of $4,915 - $4,995 million.
Less concerning ifR&D expenses are above the guidance limit, which may mean overspending.
Why it matters: Good results may show VGA039 as a top treatment for von Willebrand disease. This would help Incyte's hematology portfolio.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 VIVID-6 study finished successfully. VGA039 had positive results.
Worry ifThe Phase 3 study fails to meet its primary endpoint or shows safety concerns.
Why it matters: A positive decision could lead to a commercial launch and boost revenue from Jakafi.
Supportive ifJakafi XR receives FDA approval and is launched in mid-2026.
Worry ifJakafi XR is not approved, delaying the launch.
Why it matters: R&D costs will show the financial impact of the Vega acquisition and ongoing investments.
Worry ifGAAP R&D expenses exceed $1.27 billion in Q3 2026 due to the Vega acquisition.
Less concerning ifGAAP R&D expenses remain below $1.27 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Data readouts will show how well Incyte's late-stage drugs perform. Positive results could boost growth.
Supportive ifAt least one Phase 3 trial reports positive data results by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAll Phase 3 trial data readouts show disappointing results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,833 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.