indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.60+3.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INDI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -77.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 38.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 115.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INDI — President transition
Dated 2026-06-22
President — Dr. Ichiro Aoki: Dr. Aoki is retiring from his roles as President and Director, but will continue in a Technical Advisor role.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may hurt indie Semiconductor's performance. It shows a weakening market.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would improve indie's products. It would also help in AI and cars.
Supportive ifThe deal for the CMOS image sensor business from ams OSRAM will close by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe deal is not done by Q3 2026 or is facing big delays.
Why it matters: A loss in Q2 would confirm ongoing financial struggles. It could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a net loss greater than previous quarters.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows a net profit or smaller loss.
Why it matters: If guidance is confirmed, it means management thinks growth will happen. They also see demand for their products.
Watch forManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance of $67 million to $73 million on the earnings call.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance to below $67 million on the earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$430 on $10,000 · ±4.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $753 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,933 loss on $10,000 · 59.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This acquisition could enhance product offerings and drive future growth.
Supportive ifThe purchase and integration updates will be shared in a press release.
Worry ifLook for any delays or problems with the purchase process.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows indie is recovering well. It shows management's plan is working.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at $73 million or higher, confirming 30% YoY growth.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue was below $67 million. This means growth is under 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing this deal will make indie's products better. It will also help them in physical AI.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close successfully in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDelay in closing the acquisition past Q3 2026 or failure to complete it.
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better financial health. This is a step toward making money.
Supportive ifGAAP operating loss for Q3 2026 reported below $35 million.
Worry ifGAAP operating loss for Q3 2026 reported above $35 million.
Why it matters: New design wins show indie's strong position. They also show growth potential in key markets.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new design wins in radar or AI applications by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new design wins announced in radar or AI applications by the end of Q3 2026.