Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.35-14.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.02 → 0.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INDI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $150 million convertible notes issuance in Q1 2026 | The company raised $150 million in convertible notes. | Under Pressure | Convertible notes issuance not completed by Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent earnings beats and revenue growth are encouraging, but momentum has weakened and performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: INDI is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows an 18% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited; fragility is tagged low.
Revenue rose 24% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management guides to roughly 30% growth in Q3, supporting near-term growth if delivery continues. The acquisition is not yet reflected in reported results, while the company remains loss-making and momentum has fallen; a guidance cut would be a meaningful near-term concern.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth, completing the imaging-sensor acquisition, and showing that the added business can contribute as expected. Near term, a guidance cut or continued weakness among industry peers could weigh on execution confidence, while rate cuts or stabilization in major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
INDI has growth evidence, but its loss-making position, high risk, and weakening momentum leave the 1-to-3-year thesis dependent on steady execution and clearer results from the acquisition. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin near 46%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 40% next year |
Gross margin: 36.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 46%. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 202636.066803 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $62 million in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in indie Semiconductor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $62 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $54 million in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $64.009M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $62 million. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 7, 202664,009,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.14 → $0.02 · observed estimates
$0.36B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.14 | $359,823,570 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $357,648,570 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.08 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.05 | $359,823,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.02 | $355,078,350 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.02 | $355,080,613 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.02 | $354,716,677 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.