Itron, Inc. (ITRI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.01+1.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ITRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
ITRI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on April 13, 2026, Itron, Inc. (the Company) was informed that an unauthorized third party had gained access to certain of its systems. With the assistance of external cybersecurity experts, the Company has continued its investigation, remediation, and containment activities relating to the unauthorized access. Since the filing of the Original Report, the Company has not observed any further unauthorized activity in its systems. Its operations have conti…
Why it matters: A drop in backlog may show lower demand or project delays, affecting future income.
Worry ifThe total backlog is reported below $4.4 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal backlog reported at or above $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Completing this program shows good use of money and trust in the stock.
Supportive ifItron finishes the $200 million share buyback program.
Worry ifItron does not execute on the share repurchase program as planned.
Why it matters: How well the response works will affect customer trust and stability.
Worry ifItron says the cybersecurity problem is under control. There are no more breaches.
Less concerning ifNew unauthorized access events have been reported since the first breach.
Why it matters: Updates on the $200 million buyback may show management's trust in the stock.
Supportive ifThey announced big share buybacks finished on time.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,354 loss on $10,000 · 43.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The share buyback plan can increase earnings per share and boost investor trust. It shows management's promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifProof of share buybacks happening in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is managing recent challenges.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog will show future revenue and project needs.
Watch forBacklog increases to above $4.4 billion.
Also watch forBacklog drops below $4.4 billion.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Itron can maintain revenue growth after a 7% decline last quarter.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirmed at $590 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance below $590 million.
Why it matters: Itron's Outcomes segment is growing. This shows their focus on regular income is working.
Supportive ifOutcomes segment revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Worry ifOutcomes segment revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows good money management. It can help the stock price.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $200 million share repurchase program.
Worry ifNo significant progress on the share repurchase program.