Itron, Inc. (ITRI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$101.60+3.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ITRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ITRI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on April 13, 2026, Itron, Inc. (the Company) was informed that an unauthorized third party had gained access to certain of its systems. With the assistance of external cybersecurity experts, the Company has continued its investigation, remediation, and containment activities relating to the unauthorized access. Since the filing of the Original Report, the Company has not observed any further unauthorized activity in its systems. Its operations have conti…
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted gross margin rose to 41.3%, up 350 basis points year over year. A drop would weaken evidence that better margins can last.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 41.3% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifAdjusted gross margin stays at or above 41.3% in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Outcomes revenue rose 9% in Q3, while annual recurring revenue rose 25%. Faster growth would build on this software and services progress.
Supportive ifOutcomes revenue grows more than 9% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifOutcomes revenue is flat or falls year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Itron's Q4 earnings guide is $1.70 to $1.80 per share. A result above the range would beat that guide.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS is reported above $1.80.
Worry ifQ4 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS is reported below $1.70.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow fell to $96 million from $113 million a year earlier. A return above that level would reverse the recent decline.
Supportive ifQuarterly free cash flow exceeds $113 million.
Worry ifQuarterly free cash flow stays at or below $96 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $348 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,719 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Itron guided to $621 million to $636 million for Q4. Revenue above that range would extend its return to growth.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue is reported above $636 million.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is reported below $621 million.