Itron, Inc. (ITRI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.01+1.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue near $2.4 billion in FY 2026: FY26 rev guide $2.39B vs $2.4B target; Q3 guide $595M.
Itron delivers steady profit with EPS around $6.00 in 2026. Revenue is expected near $2.4 billion this year. The company is executing a $200 million share repurchase program. Its strategic partnerships support growth in digital water management.
Revenue declined 3% last quarter and cybersecurity issues pose risks. Legal and regulatory challenges may hurt results. Profit margins could weaken if growth stalls or costs rise.
The price is about 39% below our fair value estimate near $141. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these moderate growth expectations but sees risks from recent challenges.
Breaks if: New major cybersecurity breach or legal penalties occur
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.75 in FY 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.35B in FY 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in its Outcomes segment. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and a share repurchase program, but with some elevated risks.
The market currently prices ITRI as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. The valuation reflects a low fragility tier, indicating that while there is some concern, it is not overly priced for risk.
Management is executing on key priorities, such as growing recurring revenue and maintaining cybersecurity. However, there is a mixed status on cybersecurity management, and recent performance shows a low probability of missing earnings, though past misses are a concern.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including guidance from management in the next earnings call, potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of sector leaders like APH, GLW, and KEYS. These elements will influence market sentiment and ITRI's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports growth in the Outcomes segment. However, sales were below analyst estimates, which may impact future growth expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Repurchase program is canceled or materially delayed
In the next 1 to 3 years, ITRI's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.