Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Itron, Inc. (ITRI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$99.46-2.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.01 → 6.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ITRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cybersecurity and legal compliance | A supporting condition in Itron, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain effective cybersecurity and compliance measures. | Recovered | New major cybersecurity breach or legal penalties occur | No new breaches or penalties reported April 2026 unauthorized access contained; no further activity observed; no new legal penalties or breaches reported since. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-led growth business with recurring software and services revenue, rather than a pure turnaround. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong and momentum improved, but elevated risk and neutral earnings quality and management keep the evidence mixed.
ITRI is described as cheap versus peers, and the valuation model has medium confidence. The priced-in assessment says expectations are justified with low fragility, though the expectations gap is negative; the snapshot does not define that measure, so its implication is unclear.
Near term, three consecutive reported earnings beats and improved Q3 margins support the operating picture. Outcomes revenue grew 9% year over year and annual recurring revenue rose 25%, while Resiliency Solutions added revenue after acquisitions, with integration progress still unclear. The next guidance update remains a risk, given a history of a deep miss and a trend of declining earnings surprises, despite a low stated near-term miss risk.
The multi-year view depends on continued growth in Outcomes and recurring revenue, and on management turning acquisitions into durable Resiliency Solutions growth while sustaining efficiency gains. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
As of 2026-10-31, the long-term thesis is intact, with strong recent performance and a comparatively cheap valuation offset by elevated execution and guidance risks. The evidence is medium confidence, and continued delivery is central to the 1-to-3-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Itron delivers steady profit with EPS around $6.00 in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $5.75 in FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $1.61 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.00. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20261.61 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $2.4 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue is expected near $2.4 billion this year. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $2.35B in FY 2026 | Revenue: $599.333M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.4B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 2026599,333,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute $200 million share repurchase program | The company is executing a $200 million share repurchase program. | Intact | Repurchase program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Q1 and Full Year 2026 Current Outlook First quarter 2026 financial outlook: Revenue between $565 and $575 million Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $1.20 and $1.30 Full year 2026 financial outlook: Revenue between $2.35 to $2.45 billion Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $5.75 to $6.25 Locusview, Ltd.” “Q4 and Updated Full Year 2026 Outlook Fourth Quarter 2026 financial outlook: Revenue between $621 and $636 million Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $1.70 and $1.80 Updated Full Year 2026 financial outlook: Revenue between $2.37 and $2.385 billion Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $6.72 and $6.82 Earnings Conference Call Itron will host a conference call to discuss the financial results contained in this release at 10:00 a.m.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.56 → $6.93 · observed estimates
$2.53B → $2.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.56 | $2,532,577,390 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.56 | $2,532,577,390 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.56 | $2,532,577,390 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.58 | $2,532,475,081 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.56 | $2,532,577,390 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.65 | $2,523,515,830 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.65 | $2,523,515,830 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.85 | $2,542,641,667 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.80 | $2,545,730,310 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.85 | $2,542,644,167 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.88 | $2,542,644,167 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.88 | $2,542,644,167 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.88 | $2,542,644,167 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.94 | $2,544,793,636 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.94 | $2,544,793,636 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.94 | $2,544,757,273 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.01 | $2,550,953,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.01 | $2,550,996,371 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.01 | $2,550,991,997 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.01 | $2,550,991,997 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.01 | $2,550,991,997 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.01 | $2,550,991,997 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.01 | $2,550,991,997 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.01 | $2,550,991,997 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.91 | $2,518,176,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.93 | $2,517,566,000 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.