Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$0.77 → $0.77 · observed estimates
JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC (JMKE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.01+6.54%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JMKE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effectively manage M&A activity | A supporting condition in JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Manage M&A effectively with no negative impact on operations. | Intact | Negative M&A news impacts stock price significantly | No negative M&A impact; Q3 earnings beat IPO and control changes noted. Q3 earnings beat. Stock up 20.5% in 5 days, no M&A-related sell-off. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
$0.77 → $0.77 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JMKE is a growth-sensitive consumer discretionary business, with expansion and customer frequency as its main growth levers. Management appears stable, but the thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to judge the broader trend.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or a clear account of market expectations, so whether JMKE is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Fragility is rated low, with no listed signs that the setup is unusually exposed to a change in market expectations.
In the near term, recent results are mixed: JMKE reported an earnings beat on October 28 after a September 9 miss, and its recent earnings surprises have been erratic. In 2026-Q3, same-store sales rose 3.0%, digital sales mix reached 43%, and management reported 80 new store openings; full-year guidance calls for at least 2.5% same-store sales growth and at least 8% net unit growth. Capital returns are supported by reported operating cash flow and announced actions, but completion is not yet reported.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on whether store expansion and customer demand continue to support management’s stated growth plans. Sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM provide signals for the consumer discretionary backdrop, while a material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.1% could weigh more heavily on the sector. Evidence is limited, so these factors do not yet establish a clear long-term direction.
JMKE has some evidence of progress in expansion, sales, and capital returns, but recent earnings have been uneven and the available history is too thin for a firm multi-year view. The thesis remains uncertain and depends on continued execution amid a growth-sensitive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins are expected to stabilize as the company manages costs. |
| Intact |
| Profit margins fall below 8% in FY26 |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Net margin from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of approximately $795 million in FY26 | A primary condition in JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS INC's published investment case. The stated target is =$795 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $750 million in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Revenue from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.87B → $0.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | $0.77 | $866,510,000 | 7 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.