Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.90-2.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.65 → 2.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JMSB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share | It pays a steady $0.09 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend cut or suspension | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
JMSB is a regional bank with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or a proven durable compounder. The current thesis state is watch: recurring growth priorities are showing progress, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution is mixed.
The valuation evidence describes JMSB as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap score of -0.51 and a premium-to-peer score of 0.97. The priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified and fragility is low, though valuation rose notably in the recent period; weak execution is the main cited source of fragility.
Near term, the latest event was an earnings beat, but recent financial performance remains well below its industry cohort and the supplied evidence notes a past deep miss. Over the multi-year view, core deposits and loans have grown, while net interest margin improved year over year but fell sequentially in the latest quarter; the announced Eagle Financial Services merger has not yet shown a closing milestone.
The thesis depends on continued deposit and loan growth, a steadier net interest margin, and delivery beyond signing the Eagle Financial Services merger. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts are cited as risks, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, JMSB’s setup combines evidence of core growth with uneven recent performance and incomplete merger execution. The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, but the thesis remains on watch until execution becomes more consistent. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.12 in FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $1.83 in FY26 or fails to reach $2.12 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio near 13.76, above peer median 11.98 | The bank trades at a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 13.76, above peers but justified by quality. | Intact | PE ratio falls below 11 or rises above 18 | P/E (TTM): 12.39x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202612.3947 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.10 → $2.65 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.10 | $79,058,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.10 | $79,058,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.10 | $79,058,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.10 | $79,058,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.10 | $79,058,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.13 | $79,215,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.42 | $131,665,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.65 | $183,231,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.65 | $183,231,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.65 | $183,231,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.65 | $183,231,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.65 | $183,169,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.65 | $183,169,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.