John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.36+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JMSB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -25.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
JMSB — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Events. As more fully described in the attached press release dated July 22, 2026, the Board of Directors of John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per outstanding share of common stock on July 21, 2026. The dividend will be payable on August 26, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 5, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto in Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Keeping good asset quality is important. It helps the company stay stable in the long run.
Watch forNo non-accrual loans reported in Q3 2026.
Also watch forAny non-accrual loans reported in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows demand. It helps increase revenue, which is important for performance.
Supportive ifTotal loans exceed $2.1 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal loans remain below $2.0 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company cares about giving value to shareholders. More dividends mean strong financial health.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.10 per share as scheduled.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the dividend payment.
Why it matters: More loans show strong demand. It also means good lending strategies are in place.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds $2.0 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below the current level of $2.0 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,257 loss on $10,000 · 12.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 earnings will show if the company continues its positive performance trend. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share exceeds $0.10, showing growth from the previous quarter.
Worry ifEarnings per share falls below $0.09, indicating a decline in performance.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show management's trust in financial health and growth.
Watch forThe quarterly dividend is now over $0.10 per share.
Also watch forQuarterly dividend is decreased or remains at $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: Starting a dividend program shows the company is confident in its cash flow. It can attract more investors and support the stock price.
Supportive ifA formal announcement of the start date and amount of the quarterly dividend.
Worry ifNo announcement of the dividend program by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can signal management's confidence in the company's value. It can also support share price.
Supportive ifThe company is buying back shares and is close to the 700,000 share limit.
Worry ifThe company stops or slows down the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost earnings per share and signal management's confidence.
Supportive ifThe company buys back shares before Q3 ends. This is part of the buyback program.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased under the buyback program.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal sector weakness. This affects overall performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing margins are important for making more money in a tough banking market.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases to above 3.00% in Q3.
Worry ifIf net interest margins drop below 2.90%, it may mean less money coming in.