John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.55+1.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JMSB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 47.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JMSB — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-28
Other Events. As more fully described in the attached press release dated October 28, 2026, the Board of Directors of John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per outstanding share of common stock on October 27, 2026. The dividend will be payable on December 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 10, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto in Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Q3 had no charge-offs and one small, fully guaranteed non-accrual loan. New losses would weaken that record.
Worry ifQ4 results report any charge-offs or more than one non-accrual loan.
Less concerning ifQ4 results show no charge-offs and no more than one non-accrual loan.
Why it matters: The margin rose year over year but fell eight basis points in Q3 as deposit costs rose. Another drop could slow income growth.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 2.83%, more than eight basis points below Q3's 2.91%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin returns to 2.91% or higher in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$65 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $220 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,004 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.