NYSEInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $309.00. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $309 KEYS trades at 36× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median, but our blended $248 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $305–$425. Note: our $248 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($305–$425). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
$305.00 – $425.00 (median $386.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 201% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.8 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.05/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $386.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $131.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $134.14 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $84.49 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $322.71 | 39.4 | 8.19 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $59.53 | 18.4 | 3.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $201.07 | 26.2 | 7.68 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $325.07 | 39.4 | 8.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $141.09 | 4.0 | 35.19 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $250.80 | 30.4 | 8.25 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $57.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $248.10 | 30.1 | 8.25 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $360.27 | 39.4 | 9.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $659.03 | 39.4 | 16.73 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $221.21 | 26.2 | 8.45 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $384.89 | 39.4 | 9.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $146.25 | 4.0 | 36.48 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $296.95 | 30.4 | 9.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $293.76 | 30.1 | 9.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1060.81 | 39.4 | 26.92 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $235.75 | 26.2 | 9.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $308.45 | 39.4 | 7.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $117.20 | 4.0 | 29.23 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $237.97 | 30.4 | 7.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $235.41 | 30.1 | 7.83 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
