KMI
Kinder MorganNYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, KMI has a composite score of 18.8, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.3 and reflects a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as inflation, labor, growth, and rates. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.32 (+7.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase Adjusted EBITDAgrowthmixed62% progress
4/22: “KMI budgeted 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion, up 2% versus 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. KMI budgeted 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion, up 2% from 2025's $8.3 billion. Despite the stated increase, the financials show limited progress with revenue declining from $4.14 billion in 2025-Q3 to $3.07 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving the growth target.
- 2.Raise Adjusted EPSgrowthmixed62% progress
4/22: “Adjusted EPS is $1.36, also up 5% from 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS is projected to rise to $1.36 in 2026, a 5% increase from 2025. However, diluted EPS was $0.28 in 2025-Q3 and not reported in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited visibility on achieving the target.
- 3.Increase Free Cash Flowgrowthmixed62% progress
4/22: “Free cash flow (FCF) after capital expenditures of $0.7 billion, up 73% from the prior year period.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Free cash flow after capital expenditures is targeted at $0.7 billion, up 73% from the prior year. Despite this ambitious target, cash from operations was negative in 2025-Q4 at -$2.59 billion, indicating significant challenges in achieving this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −11%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 67/100, drawdown 78/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase Adjusted EBITDA
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA by 2% in 2026 compared to 2025.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. KMI budgeted 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion, up 2% from 2025's $8.3 billion. Despite the stated increase, the financials show limited progress with revenue declining from $4.14 billion in 2025-Q3 to $3.07 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving the growth target.
62%CEO/CFO:“KMI budgeted 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion, up 2% versus 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“KMI budgeted 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 billion, up 2% versus 2025.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“KMI budgeted 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 billion, up 4% versus 2024.”
- #2
Raise Adjusted EPS
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to increase Adjusted EPS to $1.36 in 2026, a 5% rise from 2025.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS is projected to rise to $1.36 in 2026, a 5% increase from 2025. However, diluted EPS was $0.28 in 2025-Q3 and not reported in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited visibility on achieving the target.
62%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EPS is $1.36, also up 5% from 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS is $1.36, also up 5% from 2025.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted EPS of $1.27, up 10% from 2024.”
- #3
Increase Free Cash Flow
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target a 73% increase in free cash flow after capital expenditures in 2026.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Free cash flow after capital expenditures is targeted at $0.7 billion, up 73% from the prior year. Despite this ambitious target, cash from operations was negative in 2025-Q4 at -$2.59 billion, indicating significant challenges in achieving this priority.
62%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow (FCF) after capital expenditures of $0.7 billion, up 73% from the prior year period.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow (FCF) after capital expenditures of $0.7 billion, up 73% from the prior year period.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
68 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KMI Kinder Morgan | +19 | inexpensive | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the following information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act. On April 22, 2026, Kinder Morgan, Inc. “KMI” issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial resul…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 50 - 2026-04-2216d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 22, 2026, KMI announced that James E. Holland, who has served as Chief Operating Officer of KMI since July 2020, plans to retire effective September 4, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), and Kenneth W. Grubb, KMI’s Vice President and Chief Project Officer, has been appointed by the Board of Directors of KMI to succeed Mr. Holland as Chief Operat…
executive changeneutralscore 45 - 2026-01-213mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the following information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act. On January 21, 2026, Kinder Morgan, Inc. issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results f…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.