Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Kearny Financial Corp/MD (KRNY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.03-3.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.99 → 0.95 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KRNY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $0.79 in fiscal 2027 | Kearny pays a steady dividend of $0.11 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.50 per share | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional financial business with a multi-year view that depends on improving execution, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The thesis is on watch after recent earnings misses, even as the signal has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.
The valuation model describes KRNY as expensive versus peers, with a 0.62 premium and a modest expectations gap of 0.09. The priced-in assessment says fragility is low and the valuation is justified, rather than reflecting the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.
Near term, recent financial performance is weak and earnings quality is fragile, with earnings misses reported in July and October. In 2026-Q3, deposits grew 8.7% on an annualized basis and loans grew 7.2% on an annualized basis, while expenses fell 6.1%; part of the expense reduction came from non-recurring items. Guidance changes and rate conditions remain risks, while continued deposit growth and loan-mix changes are execution signals to monitor over the multi-year view.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on KRNY and the financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers HDB, IBN, and USB could support sector momentum. The central swing factor is whether KRNY can sustain its deposit and lending progress while improving results.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on translating growth in relationship-based deposits and commercial lending into more reliable performance. Recent misses and an expensive peer valuation keep the setup on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose from $6.6M to $10.1M in one year. |
| Broken |
| net income falls below $6.6 million |
Net income: $7.172M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=10.1 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 21, 20267,172,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly cash dividend at $0.11 per share | Kearny pays a steady dividend of $0.11 per share. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.11 per share | Dividend per share: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 0.11 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. May 7, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain P/E near 16.3, above peer median 12 | A supporting condition in Kearny Financial Corp/MD's published investment case. The stated target is P/E >= 16. | Intact | P/E falls below peer median 12 | P/E (TTM): 15.03x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202615.0323 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.00 → $0.95 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.00 | $218,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.99 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.96 | $219,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.96 | $218,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.96 | $218,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.96 | $216,102,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.96 | $216,102,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.95 | $215,402,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.