Kearny Financial Corp/MD (KRNY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.13+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Net income grows to $10.1M by 2026-Q3: EPS 11% vs 17% consensus (-35.3%).
Kearny pays a steady dividend of $0.11 per share. Net income rose from $6.6M to $10.1M in one year. The stock trades cheap compared to peers with a P/E of 16.3 versus 12. Analysts expect earnings near $0.79 next year.
Revenue is expected to fall about 40% next year. Earnings missed estimates twice last year. The company quality score dropped sharply by 21.9 points.
The price is about 32% above our fair value near $7. Analysts expect revenue to drop 40%. We think earnings will hold better than revenue.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.50 per share
Breaks if: net income falls below $6.6 million
Breaks if: quarterly dividend falls below $0.11 per share
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a fragile growth story in the financial sector. The current thesis state has shifted from robust to weakened, reflecting recent earnings misses and declining momentum.
The market seems to be pricing in a stretched valuation, considering KRNY's weak execution quality. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate better performance than what has been delivered recently.
Management has been focused on sustaining net interest margin expansion and maintaining dividends, with some success. However, recent quarterly net income has shown volatility, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for KRNY. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further pressure KRNY's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The reason to own KRNY has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. The latest earnings miss also contributed to this change. The market reaction has been muted since these developments.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: P/E falls below peer median 12
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KRNY faces challenges due to its fragile earnings and recent performance issues. The outlook will depend heavily on sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.