LUCKIN COFFEE INC (LKNCY)
OTCConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.50+1.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
OTCConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LKNCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -88.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This can hurt consumer spending and Luckin's sales.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims show claims drop below 200,000.
Less concerning ifWhen claims go above 300,000, it shows the job market is getting worse.
Why it matters: This index affects inflation and how much people spend. This is key for Luckin Coffee.
Watch forIf PPI goes down or stays the same, it shows inflation is under control.
Also watch forIf PPI goes up a lot, it means costs are rising. This could hurt spending.
Why it matters: Consumer Price Index data shows inflation trends. High inflation can hurt consumer spending.
Worry ifCPI shows inflation rate below 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifWhen CPI rises above 5% each year, it shows that inflation is increasing.
Why it matters: This report shows trends in consumer spending. This is important for Luckin Coffee's growth.
Watch forRetail sales show growth, indicating strong consumer demand for coffee.
Also watch forIf retail sales go down, it means people are spending less. This could hurt sales.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $420 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,570 loss on $10,000 · 35.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean less consumer spending. This could hurt Luckin Coffee's sales.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims are going up a lot compared to earlier.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims are going down or staying the same. This shows a stronger job market.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show how much consumers are spending. This affects Luckin Coffee's sales.
Watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows sales growth above 2% month over month.
Also watch forRetail sales growth is under 0%. This shows consumers are spending less.
Why it matters: CPI affects how much money consumers have to spend. This impacts Luckin Coffee's sales.
Watch forIf CPI goes down or stays the same, it means consumers have more buying power.
Also watch forIf CPI goes up a lot, it may mean people spend less on coffee.