LUCKIN COFFEE INC (LKNCY)
OTCConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.36-4.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
OTCConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LKNCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Retail sales are a near-term check on consumer demand. A drop would add to the sector's shrinking revenue signal.
Worry ifThe November 17 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales fell from the prior month.
Less concerning ifThe report shows retail sales rose from the prior month.
Why it matters: Higher consumer prices can strain household budgets. That could add pressure to a sector already marked as shrinking.
Worry ifThe November 10 CPI report shows monthly consumer price growth above the prior month's rate.
Less concerning ifThe report shows monthly consumer price growth at or below the prior month's rate.
Why it matters: The sector read says revenue is shrinking, but recent data hints at a shift. Positive growth would confirm that change.
Supportive ifXLY sector revenue growth turns positive in the next reported data.
Worry ifXLY sector revenue growth stays below zero in the next reported data.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,134 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.