Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LUCKIN COFFEE INC (LKNCY)
OTCConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.36-4.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
OTCConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
19.26 → 20.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LKNCY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand presence in key markets such as New York City | The company is adding kiosks in New York City, showing geographic expansion. | Improving | no new kiosks added in NYC next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer discretionary business with a growth-sensitive setup, but the evidence is too thin to classify it confidently as a durable compounder or another investment type. The thesis is insufficiently established, and overall confidence is low.
The valuation label recently changed from unavailable to fair, but the evidence does not specify the comparison group or what expectations are reflected. No fragility gates fired, though that does not resolve the uncertainty in the valuation picture.
There is not enough recent financial-performance history to judge the business’s fundamental direction over the near term. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is neutral; the snapshot provides no company-specific execution or results details.
Over the near term, continued strength or weakness in restaurant bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could shape the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, a material slowdown in GDP growth from the stated 2.1% level could weigh more heavily on this growth-sensitive sector, while limited company-specific evidence leaves the thesis unresolved.
The 1-to-3-year read is uncertain: the valuation is labeled fair, but the evidence is too limited to establish a clear fundamental trajectory. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Non-coffee sales are becoming a strong revenue driver. |
| Intact |
| non-coffee sales share falls below 15% next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profitability with stable margins | A primary condition in LUCKIN COFFEE INC's published investment case. The stated target is Positive net income and stable margins next 4 quarters. | Broken | net income turns negative or margins decline more than 5% next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase store count to support revenue growth | A primary condition in LUCKIN COFFEE INC's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or exceed 35,000 stores next 4 quarters. | Intact | store count falls below 30,000 next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.92 → $20.02 · observed estimates
$70.19B → $72.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.92 | $70,190,774,783 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.92 | $70,190,774,783 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.89 | $70,086,189,815 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.89 | $70,086,189,815 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.89 | $70,086,189,815 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $17.89 | $70,086,189,815 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $17.89 | $70,086,189,815 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $17.91 | $70,147,990,023 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $17.91 | $70,147,990,023 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $17.95 | $70,323,882,923 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $17.95 | $70,314,375,199 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $17.95 | $70,314,375,199 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $17.95 | $70,314,375,199 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $17.95 | $70,314,375,199 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $19.03 | $72,833,803,208 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.22 | $72,546,991,202 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.26 | $72,703,701,322 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.27 | $72,742,878,852 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.27 | $72,742,878,852 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.29 | $72,791,850,765 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.28 | $72,786,953,574 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.29 | $72,806,542,339 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.29 | $72,806,542,339 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.29 | $72,806,542,339 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.17 | $72,933,957,406 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.17 | $72,933,957,406 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.17 | $72,933,957,406 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $19.14 | $72,826,023,391 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $19.19 | $72,992,830,505 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $19.17 | $72,938,863,497 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $19.17 | $72,890,715,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $19.17 | $72,890,715,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $19.17 | $72,890,715,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $19.20 | $72,983,863,153 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.20 | $72,998,570,723 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.20 | $73,008,375,769 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.20 | $73,008,375,769 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.21 | $73,023,083,339 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.22 | $73,086,816,141 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.22 | $73,086,816,141 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.22 | $73,086,816,141 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.21 | $73,027,985,862 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.51 | $73,201,483,208 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $19.53 | $73,270,290,833 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $19.53 | $73,270,290,833 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $19.53 | $73,270,290,833 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.51 | $73,226,057,360 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $19.22 | $72,101,958,951 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $19.29 | $72,375,806,191 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $19.29 | $72,368,490,061 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $19.29 | $72,368,490,061 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $19.26 | $72,260,005,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $19.27 | $72,318,466,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $19.27 | $72,318,466,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $19.26 | $72,265,408,376 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $19.25 | $72,221,731,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $19.25 | $72,221,731,639 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $19.29 | $72,396,998,546 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $19.27 | $72,291,828,685 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $19.26 | $72,311,397,589 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $19.26 | $72,311,397,589 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $19.26 | $72,311,109,995 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $19.29 | $72,398,506,757 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $19.28 | $72,383,940,630 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $19.28 | $72,369,374,503 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $19.28 | $72,364,519,128 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $19.28 | $72,364,519,128 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $19.28 | $72,364,519,128 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $19.30 | $72,470,526,306 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.32 | $72,523,021,347 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $19.66 | $72,701,977,713 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.66 | $72,701,616,251 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $19.66 | $72,725,422,523 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $19.66 | $72,725,422,523 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $19.66 | $72,725,422,523 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $19.66 | $72,725,422,523 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $19.66 | $72,725,422,523 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.68 | $72,788,695,879 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.87 | $72,851,969,236 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.88 | $72,876,305,142 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.92 | $72,894,355,498 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.92 | $72,894,355,498 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.92 | $72,894,355,498 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.92 | $72,894,355,498 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.94 | $72,957,665,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.95 | $73,006,365,799 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.98 | $73,094,026,034 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.98 | $73,094,026,034 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.98 | $73,094,026,034 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.98 | $73,094,026,034 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.01 | $73,201,166,321 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.02 | $72,933,856,124 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.