Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$78.82+6.82%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LPX — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events. On November 5, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend to common stockholders of $0.30 per share. The dividend will be payable December 4, 2026, to stockholders of record as of November 20, 2026. The press release issued by the Company in connection with the dividend is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated into this
Why it matters: The sector has been shrinking, but recent data hints at a possible change. Positive growth would improve the backdrop for LP.
Supportive ifMaterials sector three-year revenue growth turns above 0%.
Worry ifMaterials sector three-year revenue growth stays below 0% or falls further.
Why it matters: OSB sales and prices fell, and LP expects a Q3 segment loss. A larger loss would deepen the hit from weak demand.
Worry ifQ3 OSB Adjusted EBITDA is less than negative $45 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 OSB Adjusted EBITDA is more than negative $45 million or turns positive.
Why it matters: Higher prices helped Siding, but lower volume and higher costs cut earnings. A margin below guidance would add pressure.
Worry ifQ3 Siding Adjusted EBITDA margin is below 25%, the low end of the 25% to 26% full-year range.
Less concerning ifQ3 Siding Adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 25% and sales meet or exceed $460 million.
Why it matters: LP will curtail Jasper production in October due to soft demand. A clear restart plan would signal better demand or a shift in production needs.
Supportive ifLP announces a restart date for Jasper or reports that OSB production has resumed there.
Worry ifLP says Jasper will stay curtailed indefinitely. A later update has no restart plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $388 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,428 loss on $10,000 · 34.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: LP guided to about $320 million in 2026 capital spending. Spending well above that level could add cash strain while earnings are weak.
Worry ifLP reports that 2026 capital spending is more than $320 million.
Less concerning ifLP reports 2026 capital spending at or below about $320 million.
Why it matters: LP guided to $460 million to $470 million in Q3 Siding sales. Results will test its planned return to growth.
Supportive ifQ3 Siding sales reach at least $460 million, and year-over-year sales growth is about 5%.
Worry ifQ3 Siding sales fall below $460 million or decline year over year.