Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.17+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LPX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LPX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-01
Regulation FD Disclosure On September 1, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (“LP”) issued a press release announcing that it will indefinitely curtail OSB production at its Jasper facility in Jasper, TX. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. LP expects to incur approximately $4 million to $6 million of severance and other one-time costs related to the curtailment in 2026. This amount is an estimate and is subject to change as…
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EBITDA guidance is key for investor trust. It shows strong operations.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA for Siding meets or exceeds $110 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $110 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe $0.30 dividend is paid on August 28, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up, it means better cost control. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income increases from $34 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is less than $34 million.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the materials sector.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector exceeds 1 percent.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth remains below 1 percent.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $391 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,200 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A smooth CFO change is key for stable leadership and investor trust.
Watch forAaron Howald takes over as CFO on September 1, 2026.
Also watch forAny delays or issues in the CFO transition process.
Why it matters: Staying within the $320 million capex plan shows disciplined financial management. It is vital for future growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending for Q3 2026 stays within the $320 million yearly plan.
Worry ifCapital spending goes over the $320 million yearly plan in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The curtailment at the Jasper facility reflects weak demand. This could affect overall revenue.
Worry ifQ3 OSB revenue declines more than 10% year over year, confirming demand weakness.
Less concerning ifQ3 OSB revenue remains stable or shows growth year over year.
Why it matters: Management expects Siding to return to growth. This will signal recovery in the segment.
Supportive ifSiding net sales are over $460 million in Q3. This shows a strong recovery.
Worry ifSiding net sales are under $460 million in Q3. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share in Q3.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $0.30 per share in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in spending plans may show shifts in management's growth plans.
Watch forManagement raises spending plans to over $320 million for 2026. This shows a growth focus.
Also watch forManagement lowers spending plans to under $320 million for 2026. This shows caution.