Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.17+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches about $1.67 billion in fiscal 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $1,650M-$1,670M vs ~$1,670M target.
Louisiana-Pacific aims to grow revenue to about $1.67 billion in 2026. Operating income improved to $34 million in Q1 2026 from a loss last quarter. The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. Cost control and efficiency gains support profit growth.
Revenue growth may slow below 7.8% expected by analysts. Profit margins could weaken if costs rise. The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 42, above peers.
The price is about 37% above our fair value near $57. Analysts expect about 8% revenue growth. Our fair value is 39% below the Street median price target.
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.30 per share quarterly
Continue paying a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share to shareholders as part of capital allocation strategy.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with elements of recovery and volatility. The current thesis state indicates a cautious outlook as the company has shown strong recent financial performance but faces challenges in execution and market conditions.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but overall, the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating better performance than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals may show mixed results as management focuses on growing the Siding segment and managing capital expenditures. Recent earnings surprises have been erratic, contributing to a moderate risk profile, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, and the performance of sector bellwethers that could influence LPX's momentum. Monitoring these factors will be crucial moving forward.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has raised concerns about performance. Weaker results may hinder Siding segment revenue growth and margins.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board declared and paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share in both Q1 and Q2 2026, maintaining the dividend level consistently. This shows delivery on the dividend commitment.
“Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable August 28, 2026.”
“Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable May 28, 2026.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $0 million in Q1 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1,650 million in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, LPX's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.