Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$76.97-2.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.13 → 2.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LPX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend stays at $0.30 per share | The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.30 per share quarterly | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LPX is a cyclical materials business with a multi-year thesis that depends on maintaining earnings strength and improving Siding performance. The thesis is currently intact, though management execution is mixed and the risk level has recently risen.
LPX is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 3.82 and an expectations gap of -0.12, meaning expectations appear ahead of the evidence in the snapshot. The model has low confidence, while the priced-in assessment calls the valuation justified and fragility low, rather than reflecting a broad stack of weak execution and turbulent conditions.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, but the August earnings miss and erratic surprises make the next report a near-term risk. Siding sales and adjusted earnings declined year over year in the latest comparable quarters, even as management expects a return to growth in Q3 2026; capital spending remains guided near its annual target and the quarterly dividend has been maintained.
The near-term thesis would weaken if LPX cuts guidance on its next call. Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether Siding revenue and margins recover while management delivers on its priorities. Materials-sector bellwethers may also signal whether the current sector tailwind continues or fades.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent performance and a sector tailwind, but elevated risk, mixed execution, and an expensive valuation make delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved to $34 million in Q1 2026 from a loss last quarter. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income falls below $0 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $29M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $34 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202629,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.67 billion in fiscal 2026 | Louisiana-Pacific aims to grow revenue to about $1.67 billion in 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $1,650 million in FY26 | Revenue: $691M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1,670 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026691,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.57 → $2.87 · observed estimates
$2.83B → $2.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.57 | $2,830,142,643 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.57 | $2,830,142,643 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.57 | $2,817,821,200 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.57 | $2,817,821,200 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.57 | $2,817,821,200 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.57 | $2,817,821,200 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.57 | $2,817,821,200 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.57 | $2,817,821,200 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.55 | $2,827,619,566 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.55 | $2,815,087,860 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.55 | $2,815,087,860 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.55 | $2,815,087,860 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.55 | $2,827,619,566 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.55 | $2,827,619,566 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.18 | $2,809,426,860 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.18 | $2,809,426,860 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.33 | $2,805,901,262 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.12 | $2,808,073,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.12 | $2,808,075,448 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.13 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.12 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.12 | $2,802,784,344 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.05 | $2,797,570,058 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.05 | $2,797,570,058 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.05 | $2,797,570,058 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.05 | $2,797,570,058 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.02 | $2,777,656,416 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.02 | $2,777,870,701 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.97 | $2,779,748,329 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.98 | $2,777,138,898 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.98 | $2,777,138,898 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.96 | $2,763,996,041 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.86 | $2,761,024,612 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.87 | $2,738,644,099 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.