Lamb Weston (LW)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.87-1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LW
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 the market pays 17× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 16× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $45 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $48–$57. Note: our $45 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($48–$57). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $56 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $54.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $147.73 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $316.85 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $23.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$48.00 – $57.00 (median $54.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-07-28
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 10% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.21/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $29.85 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $49.35 | 8.5 | 9.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $61.64 | 11.7 | 5.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $37.88 | 12.5 | 3.02 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $33.79 | 0.7 | 45.68 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $60.84 | 20.1 | 3.02 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $20.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $49.72 | 16.5 | 3.02 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $39.70 | 12.5 | 3.16 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $93.74 | 11.7 | 8.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $63.88 | 12.5 | 5.09 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $36.26 | 0.7 | 49.02 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $102.59 | 20.1 | 5.09 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $83.85 | 16.5 | 5.09 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $123.97 | 11.7 | 10.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $66.88 | 12.5 | 5.33 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $37.96 | 0.7 | 51.32 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $107.41 | 20.1 | 5.33 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $87.79 | 16.5 | 5.33 | Analyst | high |