Lamb Weston (LW)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.87-1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
LW — strategy / product update — Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-06-04
Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. committed to a plan to close our manufacturing facility in Broekhuizenvorst, the Netherlands. In accordance with Dutch regulations, we will initiate a formal consultation process with the related Works Council. The contemplated closure is intended to improve operational efficiency and better align our global manufacturing footprint with customer needs. In connection with the…
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase sales. This may help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year, showing a positive trend.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 3% year over year. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows strong performance even with challenges.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is more than $1.08 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $1.08 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows deeper problems with making money and managing costs.
Worry ifNet income declines more than 63% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income declines less than 63% year over year or increases.
Why it matters: Capital discipline affects future growth and financial health. Increased spending could signal a shift in strategy.
Watch forSpending on capital projects stays under $400 million for fiscal 2027.
Also watch forSpending on capital projects goes over $410 million for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Updates on cost savings show how well Lamb Weston handles inflation and runs its business.
Supportive ifManagement says it will save over $250 million each year by fiscal 2028.
Worry ifManagement does not report cost savings or lowers its targets.
Why it matters: A big drop in adjusted EBITDA shows worse efficiency and rising costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA declines more than 27% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA drops less than 27% from last year or goes up.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would mean more problems in international markets. This would hurt overall growth.
Worry ifInternational segment net sales decline more than 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifInternational sales stay steady or grow from last year.
Why it matters: Maintaining dividends is a priority. Changes can signal financial health.
Watch forThey announced that dividend payments will continue or increase.
Also watch forThey announced cuts or suspensions of dividend payments.
Why it matters: Sales growth guidance will show if the Focus to Win strategy is working. It reflects management's confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement expects sales to grow over 1% in fiscal 2027 compared to last year.
Worry ifSales growth is flat or negative. This shows there may be challenges ahead.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a top priority for Lamb Weston. Positive updates can boost confidence.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income would show management is fixing cost problems. This may help overall performance.
Supportive ifOperating income rises above $150M in Q3. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating income stays under $150M in Q3. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong cash flow. This attracts investors who want income.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at or above $0.38 in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases below $0.38 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on this strategy will indicate if Lamb Weston can achieve its cost savings and revenue growth goals. Success here is crucial for long-term value.
Supportive ifManagement says it will save over $250 million each year by fiscal 2028.
Worry ifManagement does not provide updates. They report problems with cost-saving plans.
Why it matters: Continued growth in North America is key for Lamb Weston. It shows customer wins and market share gains are effective.
Supportive ifNorth America segment sales volume increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifNorth America segment sales volume growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Lamb Weston continues to grow sales and profits. Investors will look for trends in North America and international segments.
Watch forEarnings report shows net sales growth above 1% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net sales decline year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,137 loss on $10,000 · 41.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.