Lamb Weston (LW)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.60+3.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
LW — President transition
Dated 2026-10-06
President, International — Marc Schroeder: The filing discloses the resignation of a senior officer (President, International) with a structured transition period, representing a genuine departure of a key executive.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase sales. This may help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year, showing a positive trend.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 3% year over year. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Management plans to share how it will focus markets and channels. Clear steps would help investors track the strategy.
Watch forAt Investor Day, management names markets, channels, and steps for its Focus to Win plan.
Also watch forInvestor Day slips past early 2027 or management gives no clear markets, channels, or steps.
Why it matters: The company raised its low end after Q1 results beat its targets. Input and freight costs remain a risk to that plan.
Watch forFY2027 adjusted EBITDA lands at or above $1.125 billion.
Also watch forFY2027 adjusted EBITDA lands below $1.125 billion, or the company cuts its $1.125 billion to $1.215 billion range.
Why it matters: North America volume rose 7% in Q1, its seventh straight quarterly gain. More growth would support the customer-win story.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, North America sales volume grows more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifNorth America sales volume is flat or falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,818 loss on $10,000 · 38.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in capital expenditures guidance show how Lamb Weston plans to invest or cut costs.
Watch forFiscal 2027 capital spending plans rise to over $410 million.
Also watch forFiscal 2027 capital spending plans fall below $380 million.
Why it matters: The savings plan is a key way to offset rising costs. The company passed its $100 million FY2026 milestone.
Supportive ifThe company reports at least $250 million in annual savings by the end of FY2028.
Worry ifThe company reports savings below $250 million at the end of FY2028 or lowers its savings goal.
Why it matters: This will test if Lamb Weston can maintain revenue momentum amid cost pressures.
Worry ifQ2 2027 net sales growth is below 1% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2027 net sales growth exceeds 1% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A big drop in adjusted EBITDA shows worse profits and cost control.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA prints below $1,030 million, which is a 10% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA is over $1,030 million. This shows steady profits.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse conditions in EMEA and affect overall profits.
Worry ifInternational sales fall more than 4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifInternational sales stay the same or grow compared to last year.
Why it matters: Maintaining dividends is a priority. Changes can signal financial health.
Watch forThey announced that dividend payments will continue or increase.
Also watch forThey announced cuts or suspensions of dividend payments.
Why it matters: Sales growth guidance will show if the Focus to Win strategy is working. It reflects management's confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement expects sales to grow over 1% in fiscal 2027 compared to last year.
Worry ifSales growth is flat or negative. This shows there may be challenges ahead.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a top priority for Lamb Weston. Positive updates can boost confidence.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on this strategy is key to driving revenue growth and cost savings.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved over $100 million with the Focus to Win strategy.
Worry ifManagement says they face problems in saving costs or growing revenue.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income would show management is fixing cost problems. This may help overall performance.
Supportive ifOperating income rises above $150M in Q3. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating income stays under $150M in Q3. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong cash flow. This attracts investors who want income.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at or above $0.38 in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases below $0.38 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Plant changes may help factories run better. But management expects high closure costs in fiscal 2027.
Watch forFiscal 2027 closure costs stay at or below $110 million. Management reports better plant use in International markets.
Also watch forFiscal 2027 closure costs exceed $110 million, or International plant use does not improve.