LYB
LyondellBasellNYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, LYB has a composite score of -8.4, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by various factors, including an unfavorable outlook if next-quarter guidance is cut and a potential improvement if the materials sector trend rises. The confidence level is medium at 73.9, with elevated market risk and a momentum score of -16.6. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.57
- Slope (norm)0.26
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.59 → $3.22 (+102.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 28% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase cash generation targetcapital allocationmixed35% progressprovisional
1/30: “With this momentum, we are increasing our cumulative target from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $3.406 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating strong cash generation. Management has increased the target to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, showing a focus on capital allocation. The trajectory is delivering against the increased target.
- 2.Achieve cash improvement plancostwatchprovisional
10/31: “Our Cash Improvement Plan is on track to achieve our $600 million target in 2025.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Cash from operating activities was $755 million in 2025-Q3, reflecting progress towards the $600 million cash improvement target for 2025. Management's focus on cost discipline is evident, and the trajectory is on track to meet the target.
- 3.Leverage favorable market conditionsgrowthmixed65% progress
5/1: “Market conditions are expected to support significant sequential improvement across almost all businesses.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management expects market conditions to support significant sequential improvement across businesses. While specific financial outcomes are not yet visible, the focus on leveraging market dynamics is clear, and the trajectory is on track.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 60%; 252d 47%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −35%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 22/100, drawdown 29/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase cash generation target
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to increase the cumulative cash generation target to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $3.406 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating strong cash generation. Management has increased the target to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026, showing a focus on capital allocation. The trajectory is delivering against the increased target.
35%CEO/CFO:“With this momentum, we are increasing our cumulative target from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“With this momentum, we are increasing our cumulative target from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion by the end of 2026.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“and a minimum of $1.1 billion by the end of 2026.”
- #2
Achieve cash improvement plan
CostNew since 2026-05-04The company is on track to achieve its $600 million cash improvement target for 2025.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. Cash from operating activities was $755 million in 2025-Q3, reflecting progress towards the $600 million cash improvement target for 2025. Management's focus on cost discipline is evident, and the trajectory is on track to meet the target.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Our Cash Improvement Plan is on track to achieve our $600 million target in 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-31Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Our Cash Improvement Plan is on track to achieve our $600 million target in 2025.”
- #3
Leverage favorable market conditions
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management plans to leverage favorable market conditions for sequential improvement across businesses.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q2. Management expects market conditions to support significant sequential improvement across businesses. While specific financial outcomes are not yet visible, the focus on leveraging market dynamics is clear, and the trajectory is on track.
65%CEO/CFO:“Market conditions are expected to support significant sequential improvement across almost all businesses.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Market conditions are expected to support significant sequential improvement across almost all businesses.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LYB LyondellBasell | -8.4 | — | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-017d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 55 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 2.02
by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.