MCD
McDonald'sNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MCD has a composite score of 19.1, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 77.0 and reflects various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. The top drivers affecting the score include macro growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.43 → $3.42 (-0.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 12 cut, 30 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% rangecostbehind0% progress
5/7: “The Company expects 2026 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company has consistently guided for an operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range. However, specific operating margin figures for recent quarters are not provided in the financials, making it difficult to assess the exact trajectory. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Increase capital expenditures to $3.7-$3.9 billion in 2026capital allocationbehind30% progress
5/7: “The Company expects 2026 capital expenditures to be between $3.7 and $3.9 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company has increased its capital expenditure guidance from $3.0-$3.2 billion in 2025 to $3.7-$3.9 billion in 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards higher investment. However, actual capex figures are not detailed in the financials, limiting assessment of progress. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 20%; 252d 16%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 73/100, drawdown 63/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
CostNew since 2026-05-07The company aims to sustain its operating margin within the mid-to-high 40% range for 2026.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company has consistently guided for an operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range. However, specific operating margin figures for recent quarters are not provided in the financials, making it difficult to assess the exact trajectory. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company expects 2026 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2026 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2025 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2025 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2025 operating margin percent to be in the mid-to-high 40% range.”
- #2
Increase capital expenditures to $3.7-$3.9 billion in 2026
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-07The company plans to increase its capital expenditures to between $3.7 and $3.9 billion for 2026.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company has increased its capital expenditure guidance from $3.0-$3.2 billion in 2025 to $3.7-$3.9 billion in 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards higher investment. However, actual capex figures are not detailed in the financials, limiting assessment of progress. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
30%CEO/CFO:“The Company expects 2026 capital expenditures to be between $3.7 and $3.9 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2026 capital expenditures to be between $3.7 and $3.9 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2025 capital expenditures to be between $3.0 and $3.2 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2025 capital expenditures to be between $3.0 and $3.2 billion.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“The Company expects 2025 capital expenditures to be between $3.0 and $3.2 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCD McDonald's | +19 | fair | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, McDonald’s Corporation issued an investor release reporting its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the investor release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety. Also filed herewith and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is supplemental information for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information under this Item 2.02, including suc…
earnings preannouncement—score 64 - 2026-04-021mo agoItem 5.02
of the Current Report on Form 8-K that McDonald’s Corporation (the “Company”) filed on February 10, 2026, which reported that on February 4, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) elected James D. Farley, Jr., as a Director, effective February 4, 2026. On March 30, 2026, the Board appointed Mr. Farley to its Audit & Finance Committee and Corporate Responsibility Committee, effective immediately. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the…
executive changeneutralscore 25 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, McDonald’s Corporation issued an investor release reporting its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the investor release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety. Also filed herewith and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is supplemental information for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The information und…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of McDonald’s Corporation (the “Company”) increased the size of the Company’s Board to a total of 12 Directors, effective February 4, 2026. At the same meeting, the Board elected James D. Farley, Jr., as a Director, also effective February 4, 2026. The Board has not elected Mr. Farley to…
executive changeneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.