McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$282.24+0.98%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track MCD free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMcDonald's growth strategy must continue to compound to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew 9% year over year in the latest quarter, and the company beat earnings expectations. It trades at 23× P/E versus a peer median of 20×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is the potential for a guidance cut, with a 16% probability of a miss in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. MCD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 35 analysts currently covering MCD (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MCD in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $282.24. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
QSR gaining traffic indicates competitive pressure on MCD.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $282.24
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $282.24.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
New menu items could drive sales and margins.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Soft sales outlook may impact operating margins.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Closure of restaurants may impact overall sales.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Middle East boycotts hurt sales, affecting margins.
Advances: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Automation aligns with cost management and margin objectives.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Food safety issues could impact operating margins.
Advances: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
NEXT strategy aims to enhance growth and productivity.