MEDLINE INC (MDLN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$39.76-1.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDLN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-21
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”) o r otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements wi…
Why it matters: Management named buybacks as a priority, but the inputs show no purchases yet. Updates will show whether the plan moves forward.
Watch forA company filing or earnings release says the company bought back shares through its buyback program.
Also watch forMedline reports no buybacks, pauses the program, or uses the funds for another purpose.
Why it matters: The filing is a recent legal event, but the supplied summary gives no claim details. Any company update can clarify its size and effect.
Watch forMedline discloses that the case was dismissed or settled with no material cost.
Also watch forMedline discloses a material claim, loss, or added legal cost tied to the case.
Why it matters: Sales growth topped 10% in the first half. A Q3 result in the full-year goal range would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifOn November 4, Medline reports Q3 organic sales growth of 9% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth is below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: The Tracy fire caused $336 million in losses before expected insurance payments. Recovery details will show how much of that hit may be offset.
Watch forMedline reports insurance payments that offset a material part of the $336 million fire loss.
Also watch forMedline reports that insurance payments are delayed, denied, or far below the $336 million loss.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $483 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,671 loss on $10,000 · 36.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Medline cut its profit goal, even as sales grew. Q3 results will show whether higher costs still weigh on profit.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is below $3.3 billion. Or Q3 adjusted EBITDA falls from a year ago.
Less concerning ifMedline keeps its $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion goal and Q3 adjusted EBITDA grows year over year.