Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MEDLINE INC (MDLN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$39.76-1.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.57 → 1.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MDLN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $3.5 to $3.6 billion | Medline aims for adjusted EBITDA near $3.55 billion in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $3.5 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MDLN is a cyclical Healthcare business with a favorable recent operating signal, rather than a clear turnaround or a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is mixed and the evidence snapshot has medium confidence.
The valuation evidence describes MDLN as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s view and low signs of pricing fragility. That suggests expectations are not especially demanding, though the evidence does not explain the valuation gap in detail.
Near term, reported Organic Sales growth of 10.8% in the first half of 2026 was ahead of the updated full-year range, while Adjusted EBITDA rose only 1.9% and its outlook was lowered because of inflation and operational investment. The thesis depends on sustaining sales momentum and improving earnings delivery; a guidance reversal, recent litigation, and a weakening jobs trend are risks.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether management delivers its updated sales goals while stabilizing Adjusted EBITDA after the outlook reduction. The multi-year view also depends on whether Healthcare sector leaders continue to report strong results, and whether weaker employment data raises recession concerns for cyclical businesses.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MDLN has strong recent sales, a supportive sector backdrop, and a valuation described as cheap versus peers, but earnings execution and credibility remain central risks. The long-term thesis is intact, with limited evidence so far on the new share buyback program. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets organic sales growth of 8% to 9%. |
| Intact |
| organic sales growth falls below 7% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage quality control and supply chain risks | A primary condition in MEDLINE INC's published investment case. The stated target is no new FDA warnings and resolution of supply issues. | Under Pressure | additional FDA warnings or prolonged supply shortages | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Announce and execute share buyback program | The company announced a share buyback program, showing capital return focus. | Intact | no buyback program announced or executed within 1 year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.66 → $1.56 · observed estimates
$33.56B → $33.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.66 | $33,562,681,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.66 | $33,562,681,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.67 | $35,031,689,770 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.66 | $33,562,681,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.67 | $35,031,689,770 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.67 | $35,031,689,770 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.66 | $33,561,306,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.67 | $35,031,689,770 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.66 | $33,561,306,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.67 | $35,031,689,770 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.67 | $35,031,689,770 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.66 | $33,561,306,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.66 | $33,561,306,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.66 | $33,561,306,045 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.62 | $33,672,188,660 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.62 | $33,672,188,660 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.60 | $33,705,092,870 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.62 | $33,647,158,172 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.57 | $33,668,869,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.57 | $33,669,629,008 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.57 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.58 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.58 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.58 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.58 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.58 | $33,669,612,463 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.57 | $33,673,028,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.57 | $33,686,108,463 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.57 | $33,686,124,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.57 | $33,686,124,464 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.57 | $33,686,124,464 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.57 | $33,686,124,464 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.56 | $33,686,124,464 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.56 | $33,686,124,464 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.56 | $33,685,603,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.56 | $33,679,103,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.56 | $33,679,103,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.56 | $33,679,103,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.56 | $33,679,103,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.56 | $33,679,103,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.56 | $33,689,063,100 | 15 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.