MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1978.36-0.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MELI
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,978, MELI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 54× p/e (3.6× the 15× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-18% near-term growth vs our ~37% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2,414 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $1,750–$2,450. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $2125.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $13084.32 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $11135.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $357.55 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$1750.00 – $2450.00 (median $2125.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-08-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 140% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 3.2 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $44.80/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $549.58 |
| 10.4 |
| 66.95 |
| TTM |
| medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $3781.86 | 16.1 | 235.08 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $751.41 | 15.3 | 49.22 | ntm analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $569.70 | 0.8 | 693.96 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $947.35 | 25.8 | 36.77 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $247.00 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $566.78 | 15.1 | 37.49 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $5751.73 | 16.1 | 357.53 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1064.92 | 15.3 | 69.76 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1102.93 | 0.8 | 1343.51 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $1797.23 | 25.8 | 69.76 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $7606.67 | 16.1 | 472.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1408.36 | 15.3 | 92.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1458.63 | 0.8 | 1776.79 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $2376.84 | 25.8 | 92.25 | Analyst | medium |