MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1530.28-12.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MELI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 33.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MELI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: More cards can deepen use of both services. Rising late payments could weaken the value of that growth.
Watch forIn the next results, card balances grow year over year. The 15–90 day late-payment rate stays at or below its level from a year ago.
Also watch forCard balances grow year over year, but the 15–90 day late-payment rate rises above its level from a year ago.
Why it matters: MELI+ users show higher engagement. Continued growth would test whether the program deepens use of the wider platform.
Supportive ifMELI+ subscribers grow at least 50% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifMELI+ subscriber growth falls below 30% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Ad sales grew fast and passed 10% of Latin America's digital ad market. Slower growth would test that momentum.
Supportive ifAdvertising net revenue grows at least 50% year over year on an FX-neutral basis in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifAdvertising net revenue grows less than 30% year over year on an FX-neutral basis in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Lower shipping costs can help pay for free delivery. Brazil growth and buyer activity test whether the change lasts.
Supportive ifBrazil GMV grows at least 39% year over year. Free, slow shipments still add to profit in at least half of the R$19–R$79 price bands.
Worry ifBrazil GMV growth falls below 30% year over year, or fewer than half of those price bands still add to profit.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $383 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,352 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew 50%, while operating income fell 17%. The next report will show whether growth still comes with margin pressure.
Watch forQ3 revenue grows at least 40% year over year and operating margin reaches at least 6.7%.
Also watch forQ3 revenue grows less than 30% year over year, or operating margin falls below 6%.