Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc (MGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.17+0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -48.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Metagenomi Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and additional business updates. A copy of the press release in connection with the announcement is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is intended to be furnished and s…
Why it matters: A board member leaving may change the company’s direction. This can affect investor trust.
Watch forNew leaders are announced. They match strategic goals and help stabilize operations.
Also watch forNo new leaders are announced. This raises uncertainty about the company’s strategy.
Why it matters: Brian C. Thomas's resignation could change how the company operates. It may also affect its stability.
Worry ifNew executive appointed who brings a strong background in biotech.
Less concerning ifNo new hires or more resignations happen. This shows instability.
Why it matters: Completing these studies is key to submitting the IND application for hemophilia A. This could lead to clinical trials starting in 2027.
Supportive ifManagement confirms IND-enabling studies for MGX-001 are complete by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifStudies are delayed past the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Management aims to extend cash runway through Q4 2027. This is critical for operations.
Supportive ifManagement announces a financing deal. They also plan cost cuts to save cash.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news on cash runway. This shows possible funding problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $628 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,597 loss on $10,000 · 66.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting clinical trials is a major milestone. It shows the company is advancing its drug development.
Supportive ifClinical trials for MGX-001 begin as planned in 2027.
Worry ifClinical trials for MGX-001 are delayed beyond 2027.
Why it matters: Improving revenue is key to the company's growth. It reflects market demand and operational success.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth is over 10% year over year. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 5% year over year. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Better revenue means the market accepts the product more. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeding $1.2 million, showing a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is below $1.2 million, showing a continued decline.
Why it matters: Having enough cash is important for running the business. It helps keep finances stable.
Worry ifManagement says they will have enough cash to run the business until the end of 2027.
Less concerning ifManagement revises cash runway guidance to less than 4Q 2027.
Why it matters: Good results could prove Metagenomi's technology. This may attract interest in their projects.
Supportive ifA study in a peer-reviewed journal shows that MG119-28 works well.
Worry ifNo study or bad results reported in the research.
Why it matters: Submitting the IND is crucial for starting the clinical program for hemophilia A. This could validate the company's progress.
Supportive ifManagement submits the IND application for MGX-001 in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe IND application is not submitted in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, the company may have cash problems. This could hurt its ability to pay for operations.
Worry ifCash position remains above $120 million as of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash position drops below $120 million before Q4 2026.