Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc (MGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.73-7.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Losses shrink as EPS improves toward -$1.47 in 2027 | Analysts expect losses to shrink in 2027. | Improving | EPS worsens or stays below -$1.47 in 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: MGX is loss-making and its value depends on developing genetic medicines. The multi-year view is cautious and on watch after recent performance fell well below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to MGX being cheap versus peers, while the model's confidence is low. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and finds no signs of unusual fragility, but the evidence does not show precisely what the market assumes about future development.
Near term, weak recent performance and consecutive earnings misses make another miss a meaningful risk, and the signal has shifted from mixed to cautious. Over the multi-year thesis, management remains on track for an MGX-001 IND application in 4Q 2026, but the company is still preclinical and cash has declined even as management expects runway through 4Q 2027.
The thesis depends on completing MGX-001 studies and submitting the IND on schedule, while maintaining enough cash to advance the program. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure; continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, but would not replace company-level progress.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MGX's case rests on execution of early development milestones and cash management, against high risk and weak recent results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No further key departures over next 12 months. |
| Under Pressure |
| Additional key executives resign within 12 months |
1 key departure vs 0 allowed Form 8-K Item 5.02 confirms Dr. Brian C. Thomas resigned from the Board on June 10, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or grows from the low $1.2M level | A primary condition in Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.2M revenue in 2026-Q1. | Broken | Revenue falls below $1.2M in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $-257,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.2M revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 2026-257,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.94 → $-1.88 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.12 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.86 | $8,474,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.94 | $11,154,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.88 | $8,474,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.88 | $8,474,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.88 | $8,474,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.88 | $9,344,500 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.