Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.57-1.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MITK
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 MITK trades at 16× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $37.04 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $41.03 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $11.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $18.54 | 18.6 | 1.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 70% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.57/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $20.59 |
| 17.5 |
| 1.18 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $15.32 | 3.8 | 4.06 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $3.42 | 3.0 | 1.15 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $8.03 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $19.45 | 16.9 | 1.15 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $34.67 | 27.4 | 1.26 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $28.19 | 18.6 | 1.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $20.16 | 17.5 | 1.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $16.21 | 3.8 | 4.30 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $3.43 | 3.0 | 1.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $19.52 | 16.9 | 1.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $37.29 | 18.6 | 2.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $19.27 | 17.5 | 1.10 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $15.50 | 3.8 | 4.11 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $3.28 | 3.0 | 1.10 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $18.66 | 16.9 | 1.10 | Analyst | high |