Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.93-11.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MITK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers
MITK — President transition
Dated 2026-10-09
Senior Vice President — Michael E. Diamond: The filing announces the termination without cause of a named executive officer, representing a genuine loss of senior management.
Why it matters: Fraud & Identity SaaS revenue grew 37% year over year in Q3. Continued growth would support a key company priority.
Supportive ifThe next reported Fraud & Identity SaaS revenue is up at least 20% year over year.
Worry ifThe next reported Fraud & Identity SaaS revenue is flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: Mitek raised its FY26 revenue range to $195 million to $200 million. Reaching the low end would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifFY26 revenue is at least $195 million, the low end of the August outlook.
Worry ifFY26 revenue is below $195 million, or the company cuts its revenue outlook before it reports results.
Why it matters: Aaron Seyler took over sales and channel teams in August. New customer wins would show whether the joined teams are helping growth.
Supportive ifA company update names new customer wins tied to its partner channel or sales team.
Worry ifBy the next two earnings reports, Mitek reports no new wins tied to partners and cuts its revenue outlook.
Why it matters: A senior leader left without cause in October. A revenue miss or lower outlook would be a sign of added strain during the change.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows revenue below $42 million, below the low end of Q4 guidance, or lowers FY26 revenue guidance.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows revenue of at least $42 million and no cut to FY26 revenue guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $489 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,160 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A top five U.S. bank joined the full network after its pilot. More bank members would show that the channel can help expand the network.
Supportive ifMitek names at least one more bank that completes a Check Fraud Defender pilot and joins the full network.
Worry ifMitek reports no further bank members, or says the partner channel has not brought new members, by the next two earnings reports.