MLM
Martin Marietta MaterialsNYSEMaterialsBuilding MaterialsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MLM has a composite score of -7.4, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.6 and is driven by factors such as macro growth, inflation, labor, and rates. The momentum score is notably low at -20.4, while the sector score is 8.8. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.63
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.67 → $5.12 (-9.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 11 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/30: “We are reaffirming our full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations guidance of $2.43 billion at the midpoint.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $2.43 billion for 2026. Despite the reaffirmation, the financials show a decline in operating income from $505M in 2025-Q3 to $95M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
- 2.Reaffirm 2026 revenue guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
2/23: “2026 UPDATED GUIDANCE (Dollars in Millions) Midpoint Revenues $ 7,160.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance reaffirmed at $7.16 billion for 2026. However, revenue declined from $1.846B in 2025-Q3 to $754M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in meeting the guidance.
- 3.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/30: “2026 GUIDANCE (Dollars in Millions) Low Midpoint High Capital expenditures $ 550 $ 575 $ 600.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance set between $550M and $600M for 2026. Despite this focus, cash from operations was negative $474M in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited progress in managing expenditures effectively.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 24%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 60/100, drawdown 59/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -98.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Maintain the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $2.43 billion at the midpoint.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $2.43 billion for 2026. Despite the reaffirmation, the financials show a decline in operating income from $505M in 2025-Q3 to $95M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
0%CEO/CFO:“We are reaffirming our full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations guidance of $2.43 billion at the midpoint.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Reaffirming our full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.43 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations $2,160 $2,310 $2,235.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Raising our full-year 2025 guidance for Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA to $2.32 billion.”
- #2
Reaffirm 2026 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Maintain the 2026 revenue guidance at $7.16 billion.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance reaffirmed at $7.16 billion for 2026. However, revenue declined from $1.846B in 2025-Q3 to $754M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in meeting the guidance.
0%CEO/CFO:“2026 UPDATED GUIDANCE (Dollars in Millions) Midpoint Revenues $ 7,160.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-23Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 UPDATED GUIDANCE (Dollars in Millions) Midpoint Revenues $ 7,160.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The Company's 2026 Guidance below reflects continuing operations.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Given our strong year-to-date performance, we are raising our full-year 2025 guidance.”
- #3
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Control capital expenditures with a 2026 guidance range of $550M to $600M.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance set between $550M and $600M for 2026. Despite this focus, cash from operations was negative $474M in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited progress in managing expenditures effectively.
35%CEO/CFO:“2026 GUIDANCE (Dollars in Millions) Low Midpoint High Capital expenditures $ 550 $ 575 $ 600.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 GUIDANCE (Dollars in Millions) Low Midpoint High Capital expenditures $ 550 $ 575 $ 600.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures $ 550 $ 600 $ 575.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company's previously announced full-year outlook below remains unchanged.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MLM Martin Marietta Materials | -7.4 | expensive | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, the Company announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release, dated April 30, 2026, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-04-2711d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 27, 2026, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Company has appointed Christopher W. Samborski, to serve as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective as of May 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Samborski, age 45, joined the Company in August 2018 and currently serves as Pre…
executive changeneutralscore 51 - 2026-02-232mo agoItem 2.01
COMPLETION OF ACQUISITION OR DISPOSITION OF ASSETS On February 23, 2026, pursuant to the Equity and Asset Exchange Agreement, dated as of August 3, 2025 (the “ Exchange Agreement ”), by and between Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., a North Carolina corporation (“ Martin Marietta ”), and Quikrete Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Quikrete ”), (a) Martin Marietta transferred to Quikrete Martin Marietta’s assets primarily related to its cement and ready-mix concrete operations at its Midl…
mna activitypositivescore 13 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, the Company announced financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release, dated February 11, 2026, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.