Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.23-0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MNTK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 59.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MNTK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Montauk Renewables, Inc. filed a headline earnings per share (“HEPS”) report with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (“JSE”), a self-regulatory organization in South Africa, that includes certain historical financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The HEPS report was prepared for the purpose of complying with the reporting requirements of the JSE. A copy of the HEPS report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this C…
Why it matters: Reaching this revenue target would show strong growth for Montauk. It confirms management's ability to deliver on their goals.
Supportive ifRNG revenues reported at $175 million or higher for 2026.
Worry ifRNG revenues were below $175 million for 2026.
Why it matters: These changes are important for making more power and producing RECs. Finishing them could increase revenue.
Supportive ifCheck for confirmation that programming changes are done by mid-August 2026.
Worry ifIf programming changes are late, they will finish after mid-August 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining phase of the sector. This could improve investor sentiment for Montauk Renewables.
Supportive ifThe materials sector shows good revenue growth compared to last year.
Worry ifThe materials sector shows negative revenue growth compared to last year.
Why it matters: Hitting this production target shows effective operations and demand for RNG. It confirms growth in the business.
Supportive ifRNG production volumes reported at 5.8 million MMBtu or higher for 2026.
Worry ifRNG production volumes are below 5.8 million MMBtu for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$273 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $724 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,484 loss on $10,000 · 54.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows stable revenue expectations. A drop means ongoing challenges.
Worry ifREG revenue guidance remains at $23 million or higher for 2026.
Less concerning ifREG revenue guidance drops below $23 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A positive earnings per share shows better profits and efficiency. This could help investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share reported as positive in the next quarterly results.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported as negative in the next quarterly results.
Why it matters: A decline in RINs sold could signal challenges in RNG sales. This impacts overall revenue and profitability.
Worry ifRINs sold reported below 12 million for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRINs sold reported above 12 million for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Net income above this level shows Montauk can make a profit. It shows good operations.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $0.2 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income is below $0.2 million for Q3 2026. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Starting production at this facility is key for future money and growth.
Supportive ifThe Montauk Ag Renewables project will start production and make money as planned in May 2026.
Worry ifProduction at the Montauk Ag Renewables project is delayed beyond May 2026.