Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.41-9.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MNTK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MNTK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Montauk Renewables, Inc. filed a headline earnings per share (“HEPS”) report with the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (“JSE”), a self-regulatory organization in South Africa, that includes certain historical financial information for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The HEPS report was prepared for the purpose of complying with the reporting requirements of the JSE. A copy of the HEPS report is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this C…
Why it matters: Q2 RNG output rose 3% year over year, but Q1 output was flat. Q3 will test the full-year volume plan.
Supportive ifQ3 RNG output and year-to-date totals keep 5.8M–6.0M MMBtu within reach, with no cut to the full-year range.
Worry ifMontauk cuts the 2026 RNG output range below 5.8M MMBtu or reports Q3 output that puts the low end out of reach.
Why it matters: Montauk’s current signal says it is losing money, but Q2 reported $0.2M in net income. Another positive quarter would show profits continued.
Supportive ifThe November 4 report shows positive GAAP net income for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe November 4 report shows a net loss for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The North Carolina project’s start was delayed, and the REG revenue range fell. Power and REC sales would show the project is moving forward.
Supportive ifA company update reports steady power sales and REC generation at Montauk Ag. 2026 REG revenue remains within $23M–$26M.
Worry ifMontauk reports no regular power or REC sales, or cuts its 2026 REG revenue range below $23M.
Why it matters: Q2 cut the power output range from the Q1 outlook. Meeting the new range would show that the lower plan is holding.
Supportive ifThe company keeps or raises its 2026 power output range. Reported output supports a year-end total of at least 185,000 MWh.
Worry ifThe company cuts its 2026 power output range below 185,000 MWh or reports results that put the low end out of reach.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$284 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $739 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,563 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 kept the full-year RNG revenue range unchanged. Q3 results will show whether sales stay on that path.
Supportive ifQ3 results keep the $175M–$190M 2026 RNG revenue range and report year-to-date RNG revenue near the pace needed to reach it.
Worry ifMontauk cuts the 2026 RNG revenue range below $175M or reports Q3 RNG revenue that puts the annual range out of reach.
Why it matters: More feedstock can support power and REC output at Montauk Ag. The company had access to at least 350,000 spaces in July.
Supportive ifA company update confirms access to 400,000 hog spaces. It also reports that new collection sites are running.
Worry ifCollection access stays below 350,000 hog spaces, or site work stops during the second half of 2026.