Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.41-9.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.16 → 0.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MNTK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain positive earnings beats and improve profitability | Recent earnings beats show improving execution. | Intact | Earnings miss or guidance cut in more than 1 of next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a renewable energy growth business with some option value, meaning potential upside from future projects that is not yet firmly established. The long-term thesis is on watch: earnings quality and management are rated robust and stable, while recent performance is neutral and risk remains elevated.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, and the model points to a meaningful expectations gap tied to future potential. Confidence in that valuation view is low, and the evidence does not show that the premium is supported by stronger recent results.
Near term, RNG revenue is tracking toward management’s 2026 goal: it rose from $46.4 million in the first quarter to $54.0 million in the second, and guidance was maintained. REG guidance was cut after delays at Montauk Ag Renewables, while renewable electricity production guidance was unchanged despite slightly lower first-quarter output year over year; recent earnings misses add execution risk.
The multi-year case depends on continued RNG revenue growth and whether delayed REG projects begin generating revenue without further guidance reductions. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; sector support may continue if materials bellwethers keep reporting strong results and outlooks, but could fade if they weaken.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MNTK’s thesis combines a supportive sector backdrop and RNG growth with an expensive valuation, execution gaps, and recent earnings misses. The evidence supports watching whether delivery improves, rather than treating the long-term case as settled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company also targets REG revenues between $33 and $37 million. |
| Intact |
| REG revenues fall below $33 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Full Year Outlook • RNG revenues are expected to range between $175 and $190 million (unchanged) • RNG production volumes are expected to range between 5.8 and 6.0 million MMBtu (unchanged) • REG revenues are expected to range between $33 and $37 million • REG production volumes are expected to range between 195 and 207 thousand MWh (unchanged) The reduction in REG revenues outlook relates to our current expectations on the commencement of revenue generation for our Montauk Ag Renewables facility.” “We produced approximately 43 thousand megawatt hours (“MWh”) in Renewable Electricity in the first quarter of 2026, a decrease of 3 thousand MWh compared to 46 thousand MWh produced in the first quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Renewable Electricity production 195k-207k MWh in 2026 | A supporting condition in Montauk Renewables, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 195,000 MWh and <= 207,000 MWh. | Intact | Renewable Electricity production falls below 195,000 MWh in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
RNG revenues reach $175-$190 million in 2026 | Montauk Renewables aims to grow RNG revenues to $175-$190 million in 2026. | Intact | RNG revenues fall below $175 million in FY26 | Revenue: $54.02M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $175 million and <= $190 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202654,020,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Full Year Outlook • RNG revenues are expected to range between $175 and $190 million (unchanged) • RNG production volumes are expected to range between 5.8 and 6.0 million MMBtu (unchanged) • REG revenues are expected to range between $33 and $37 million • REG production volumes are expected to range between 195 and 207 thousand MWh (unchanged) The reduction in REG revenues outlook relates to our current expectations on the commencement of revenue generation for our Montauk Ag Renewables facility.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.19 → $0.16 · observed estimates
$0.25B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.19 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.19 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.31 | $255,037,480 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.13 | $246,358,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.08 | $237,114,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.12 | $229,472,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.12 | $229,472,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.16 | $241,463,323 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.