Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Meridian Corp. (MRBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.36-4.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.23 → 2.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend at least $0.14 per share | Meridian pays steady dividends, recently raised to $0.14 per share. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.14 per share | Dividend per share: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.14 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a low-priced regional banking business with a fragile earnings profile, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent performance has improved, but execution remains uneven.
MRBK is valued cheaply versus peers, while the evidence also labels expectations as stretched, with a modest expectations gap. The pricing picture is mixed: the valuation discount is clear, but the available evidence does not show that the market has fully allowed for fragile execution.
Near term, the latest earnings beat lifted company momentum and shifted the signal to mildly favorable, following a July miss. Non-performing loans and net charge-offs both declined in Q3, though non-performing loans remained elevated. Deposit balances fell, and overall commercial loan balances were generally flat nine months to date, so delivery on growth priorities remains limited.
Over the next year, the thesis hinges on continued resolution of non-performing loans without renewed charge-off pressure, and on management turning commercial lending activity into loan-balance growth while strengthening deposits. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current 3.88% would weigh on the setup; continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, MRBK has a cheap-versus-peers valuation and a recently improved operating signal, but the thesis still depends on steadier execution in credit quality, lending, and deposits. The evidence is mixed, so the latest beat does not yet resolve the underlying earnings-quality concern. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Meridian Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.39 per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.39 per share in 2026-Q4 |
Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.39 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -6.5% next year | A supporting condition in Meridian Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -6.5% revenue growth 1 year. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -6.5% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.52 → $2.10 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.52 | $151,842,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.52 | $151,852,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.40 | $142,719,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.23 | $140,039,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.23 | $140,039,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.23 | $140,039,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.23 | $140,039,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.23 | $140,019,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.10 | $137,589,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.10 | $137,589,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.