Meridian Corp. (MRBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.81+1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
MRBK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, such information, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Corporation’s reports or filings with the SEC under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the…
Why it matters: If the net interest margin stays the same or gets better, it shows good management. This affects total profits.
Supportive ifNet interest margin improves to above 3.69% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.69% in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable or falling charge-offs means better credit quality. It shows good management of credit costs.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs decrease from the current $3.9 million.
Worry ifNet charge-offs increase beyond $4.0 million.
Why it matters: Changes in credit loss provisions can impact net income and overall financial health. This is key for investor trust.
Worry ifCredit loss provisions go down. This shows better asset quality.
Less concerning ifCredit loss provisions go up. This suggests worse credit quality.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects Meridian's net interest margin and profits.
Watch forNet interest margin goes above 3.82% after the FOMC decision.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.82% after the FOMC decision.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $230 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,610 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The financial sector is in a growth phase. A drop in revenue growth could signal broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: If non-performing loans go down, it shows good management of credit risks. This is important for keeping profits.
Supportive ifNon-performing loans drop below $80 million in Q3.
Worry ifNon-performing loans increase above $82 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The company aims for consistent EPS growth. A positive EPS would signal progress.
Supportive ifEPS for Q2 2026 shows growth from $0.39 in Q1 2026.
Worry ifEPS for Q2 2026 declines or stays below $0.39.
Why it matters: Recent earnings misses were linked to credit loss provisions. Changes could impact future earnings.
Worry ifThe company reports a big drop in money set aside for credit losses.
Less concerning ifProvisions for credit losses increase or remain high.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Meridian's promise to give money back to shareholders. A steady or higher dividend means good financial health.
Supportive ifThe Board announces a quarterly dividend of $0.14 or higher per common share.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.14 per common share.
Why it matters: If loan growth reaches double digits, it shows management is making progress. It also means the company is handling recent loan payoffs well.
Supportive ifCommercial loans increase by at least 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifCommercial loans show no growth or decline in Q3.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows good use of money. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a quarterly dividend increase. It will be more than $0.14.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would indicate ongoing challenges in loan growth and credit costs.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $5 million.
Why it matters: If this level goes up, it means credit quality is getting worse. There may be issues with provisioning.
Worry ifNon-performing loans are over $85 million.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans are under $85 million.
Why it matters: If this level goes down, it shows profitability is getting worse. There may be pressure on interest income.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.60%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.60%.
Why it matters: Any change could show shifts in how capital is used. It may also affect financial stability.
Watch forThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend that is not $0.14.
Also watch forThe Board maintains the quarterly cash dividend at $0.14.